{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5de72bc-a12e-4b7f-bd2b-8418626c9807", "symbol": "300005", "name": "Toread Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.875, "architecture_energy": 43.835, "architecture_maturity": 50.362, "architecture_confidence": 62.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.23, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 21.1, "deceleration": 69.75, "rotation_down": 71.63, "downward_expansion": 46.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.467333, 14.669636, 15.490223, 15.358698 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 14.979965, "distance_from_trend": -0.245659, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.845832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.72996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170401, "excess_performance": -0.177801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.492215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1273, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298930710, "relative_activity": 1.496065, "balance": 0.704547, "dry_up": 1.882637, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.287034, "annualized_volatility": 1.090871, "from_high_reference": -0.538776, "from_low_reference": 0.384019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.979965, "fair_value_reference": 8.845832, "structural_low": 8.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.092783, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.083025, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.105569, "worst_return": -0.037775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043814, "worst_return": -0.012761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.23217, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.135731, "worst_return": -0.328608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056196, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.308186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184807, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.468094, "energy": 83.702701, "activity_lines": [ 21.198, 19.03212, 17.333346, 16.344171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.87, "volume": 254878006, "typical_volume": 156719760.3, "trend": 15.067254, "fair_value": 8.813728, "relative_strength": 19.437257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.181825, "energy": 63.527132, "activity_lines": [ 19.518666, 18.522866, 17.206146, 16.341782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.31, "volume": 622813647, "typical_volume": 181171174.35, "trend": 15.026485, "fair_value": 8.81916, "relative_strength": -25.423177, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.187646, "energy": 5.673615, "activity_lines": [ 15.969333, 16.99653, 16.548519, 15.970346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.21, "volume": 328066750, "typical_volume": 190698709.6, "trend": 14.964061, "fair_value": 8.825543, "relative_strength": -25.021146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.93256, "energy": 42.902667, "activity_lines": [ 12.903333, 15.576909, 15.907132, 15.595089 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 298930710, "typical_volume": 199811370.7, "trend": 14.979965, "fair_value": 8.845832, "relative_strength": -12.72996, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.87493, "energy": 43.834506, "activity_lines": [ 11.467333, 14.669636, 15.490223, 15.358698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }