{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5e1265a-d515-4bc6-9924-e549d514e0bb", "symbol": "2904", "name": "Prime Oil Chemical Service Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.819, "architecture_energy": 84.933, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.693, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 17.93, "upward_expansion": 20.04, "deceleration": 38.3, "rotation_down": 71.48, "downward_expansion": 95.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.033333, 13.295208, 13.566123, 14.06122 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.9, "trend_reference": 14.742882, "distance_from_trend": -0.125001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.107787, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.274612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204743, "excess_performance": -0.550476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245259, "relative_activity": 0.906978, "balance": 0.573782, "dry_up": 0.774856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032683, "annualized_volatility": 0.146991, "from_high_reference": -0.240385, "from_low_reference": 0.040323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.742882, "fair_value_reference": 16.107787, "structural_low": 12.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002458, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.019393, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.099432, "worst_return": -0.100946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.0165, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027413, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.03252, "worst_return": -0.164223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040921, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.086559, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.043928, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -58.557229, "energy": 48.645253, "activity_lines": [ 13.633333, 13.619545, 13.955511, 14.450777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 150970, "typical_volume": 260794.75, "trend": 14.967708, "fair_value": 16.162174, "relative_strength": -39.493383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.890576, "energy": 58.912679, "activity_lines": [ 13.466667, 13.549394, 13.835858, 14.330234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.75, "volume": 298293, "typical_volume": 263888.4, "trend": 14.852002, "fair_value": 16.13436, "relative_strength": -42.64644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.385062, "energy": 79.26765, "activity_lines": [ 13.183333, 13.401326, 13.685923, 14.187156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 12.9, "volume": 245259, "typical_volume": 270413.35, "trend": 14.742882, "fair_value": 16.107787, "relative_strength": -40.274612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.818859, "energy": 84.933438, "activity_lines": [ 13.033333, 13.295208, 13.566123, 14.06122 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }