{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5e61a52-907f-41b9-9799-c8856116c79f", "symbol": "00655L", "name": "Cathay FTSE China A50 Daily Leveraged 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.649, "architecture_energy": 11.999, "architecture_maturity": 29.527, "architecture_confidence": 75.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.62, "rotation_up": 24.38, "upward_expansion": 37.71, "deceleration": 79.18, "rotation_down": 33.58, "downward_expansion": 38.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.71, 34.893818, 35.356905, 34.961721 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.52, "trend_reference": 34.499, "distance_from_trend": 0.029595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.618526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.854424, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061883, "excess_performance": -0.317428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061883, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.01458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6324000, "relative_activity": 0.953888, "balance": 1.01458, "dry_up": 1.354867, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071964, "annualized_volatility": 0.27419, "from_high_reference": -0.095493, "from_low_reference": 0.312154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.499, "fair_value_reference": 27.618526, "structural_low": 30.049999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.011883, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.0101, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.071823, "worst_return": -0.085777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045183, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.109999, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.003372, "worst_return": -0.158632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010794, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103876, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.188482, "worst_return": -0.117607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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35.542953, 34.994409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.41, "volume": 12427542, "typical_volume": 7253192.1, "trend": 34.493334, "fair_value": 27.45718, "relative_strength": -29.467254, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.19929, "energy": 28.462341, "activity_lines": [ 34.239333, 35.218364, 35.321429, 34.856108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.34, "volume": 8782106, "typical_volume": 6667526.7, "trend": 34.528, "fair_value": 27.515577, "relative_strength": -24.323053, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.657991, "energy": 18.358591, "activity_lines": [ 34.384666, 35.140545, 35.375095, 34.910731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.290001, "volume": 8395849, "typical_volume": 6690623.6, "trend": 34.491667, "fair_value": 27.572051, "relative_strength": -25.102467, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.943752, "energy": 16.437893, "activity_lines": [ 34.305333, 34.896727, 35.310905, 34.895377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.52, "volume": 6324000, "typical_volume": 6629709.1, "trend": 34.499, "fair_value": 27.618526, "relative_strength": -23.854424, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.648776, "energy": 11.998631, "activity_lines": [ 34.71, 34.893818, 35.356905, 34.961721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }