{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5e8861c-79ba-484f-a588-f28c65e833f1", "symbol": "MCRB", "name": "Seres Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.878, "architecture_energy": 82.258, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.096, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 11.23, "upward_expansion": 19.46, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 76.69, "downward_expansion": 95.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.022333, 5.649818, 6.395762, 7.089591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.87, "trend_reference": 8.4515, "distance_from_trend": -0.423771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.767769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.725908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.872597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.651146, "excess_performance": -0.8386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.423771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.725908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.658726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.651146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.667192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 354532, "relative_activity": 1.004572, "balance": 0.667192, "dry_up": 1.124552, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226986, "annualized_volatility": 0.895598, "from_high_reference": -0.837558, "from_low_reference": 0.061002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.4515, "fair_value_reference": 17.767769, "structural_low": 4.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.035447, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.060859, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.598326, "worst_return": -0.455939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.156969, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.199763, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 1.121333, "worst_return": -0.705234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.241772, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.321729, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.233244, "worst_return": -0.704225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.961391, "relative_strength": -60.141527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.288068, "energy": 44.5286, "activity_lines": [ 6.778, 6.855273, 7.368619, 8.202344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.33, "volume": 728321, "typical_volume": 347261.95, "trend": 9.477667, "fair_value": 19.404532, "relative_strength": -63.13363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.684702, "energy": 49.797066, "activity_lines": [ 6.338667, 6.543455, 7.130333, 7.914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.965, "volume": 219000, "typical_volume": 346367.2, "trend": 9.154833, "fair_value": 18.835077, "relative_strength": -64.493845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.205409, "energy": 57.637586, "activity_lines": [ 5.802333, 6.208364, 6.873524, 7.62286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.83, "volume": 285647, "typical_volume": 350155.45, "trend": 8.810833, "fair_value": 18.232705, "relative_strength": -65.045103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.166915, "energy": 80.096611, "activity_lines": [ 5.330667, 5.897364, 6.62369, 7.343839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.87, "volume": 354532, "typical_volume": 352918.4, "trend": 8.4515, "fair_value": 17.767769, "relative_strength": -65.872597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.878359, "energy": 82.258442, "activity_lines": [ 5.022333, 5.649818, 6.395762, 7.089591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }