{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5e8c92a-0680-48cb-84fb-7bd741d7765e", "symbol": "ALHGR", "name": "Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies Societe anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.93, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.928, "architecture_energy": 18.569, "architecture_maturity": 54.514, "architecture_confidence": 73.264, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.26, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 18.57, "deceleration": 45.94, "rotation_down": 27.14, "downward_expansion": 57.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.032333, 3.987364, 4.024024, 4.133753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 4.296, "distance_from_trend": -0.045624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.387159, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358087, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.498371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17088, "excess_performance": -0.224191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358087, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114984, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.054115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31690, "relative_activity": 0.463162, "balance": 1.054115, "dry_up": 0.642255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054597, "annualized_volatility": 0.273823, "from_high_reference": -0.235075, "from_low_reference": 0.124829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.296, "fair_value_reference": 6.387159, "structural_low": 3.645, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.024186, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.023408, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.251969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.087662, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.061735, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.308861, "worst_return": -0.454148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.103915, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.158737, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.23641, "worst_return": -0.5131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030445, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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4.230677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.96, "volume": 102496, "typical_volume": 69045.8, "trend": 4.308, "fair_value": 6.521069, "relative_strength": -12.987935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.267582, "energy": 63.665055, "activity_lines": [ 3.905667, 3.973636, 4.079048, 4.207677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.0, "volume": 31592, "typical_volume": 67730.3, "trend": 4.307333, "fair_value": 6.485749, "relative_strength": -11.590597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.503895, "energy": 48.294323, "activity_lines": [ 3.931333, 3.968091, 4.057667, 4.187806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.935, "volume": 62667, "typical_volume": 67300.3, "trend": 4.3085, "fair_value": 6.450204, "relative_strength": -12.855447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.161115, "energy": 36.473252, "activity_lines": [ 3.946, 3.955909, 4.034286, 4.163785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.055, "volume": 49826, "typical_volume": 68411.75, "trend": 4.312, "fair_value": 6.418826, "relative_strength": -10.968447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.099311, "energy": 24.125691, "activity_lines": [ 3.989, 3.966727, 4.025738, 4.14743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 31690, "typical_volume": 68421.0, "trend": 4.296, "fair_value": 6.387159, "relative_strength": -11.498371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.928215, "energy": 18.569497, "activity_lines": [ 4.032333, 3.987364, 4.024024, 4.133753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }