{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5ea6358-04e3-46c7-a928-28d55e453cfa", "symbol": "002323", "name": "Shandong Yabo Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.774, "architecture_energy": 53.763, "architecture_maturity": 54.444, "architecture_confidence": 95.492, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 9.47, "deceleration": 48.46, "rotation_down": 50.78, "downward_expansion": 82.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.311333, 1.338727, 1.411381, 1.581312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.31, "trend_reference": 1.744, "distance_from_trend": -0.248853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.74859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.059219, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224852, "excess_performance": -0.232252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235380207, "relative_activity": 0.521103, "balance": 0.604284, "dry_up": 0.490002, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123312, "annualized_volatility": 0.801225, "from_high_reference": -0.570492, "from_low_reference": 0.201835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.744, "fair_value_reference": 1.74859, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.040833, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.023332, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.324074, "worst_return": -0.386831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068865, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.013889, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.287879, "worst_return": -0.423868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.119565, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006699, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053254, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 725784491.65, "trend": 1.792333, "fair_value": 1.785833, "relative_strength": -27.787924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.288816, "energy": 57.058484, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.384727, 1.569429, 1.701806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.37, "volume": 251042719, "typical_volume": 630829700.25, "trend": 1.782333, "fair_value": 1.776603, "relative_strength": -23.405818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.620479, "energy": 48.360387, "activity_lines": [ 1.382, 1.384727, 1.52819, 1.674559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.25, "volume": 218020895, "typical_volume": 575899682.2, "trend": 1.768, "fair_value": 1.766923, "relative_strength": -29.872041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.028428, "energy": 52.425856, "activity_lines": [ 1.344, 1.364, 1.480524, 1.640215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3, "volume": 180883907, "typical_volume": 532825100.25, "trend": 1.755, "fair_value": 1.757628, "relative_strength": -25.389255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.68944, "energy": 52.330347, "activity_lines": [ 1.326, 1.351818, 1.442524, 1.610022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.31, "volume": 235380207, "typical_volume": 451696106.4, "trend": 1.744, "fair_value": 1.74859, "relative_strength": -28.059219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.773506, "energy": 53.76265, "activity_lines": [ 1.311333, 1.338727, 1.411381, 1.581312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }