{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5ee9754-36d1-4947-a612-3121f6035904", "symbol": "MAIRE", "name": "Maire S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.58, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.518, "architecture_energy": 60.016, "architecture_maturity": 11.928, "architecture_confidence": 81.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.48, "rotation_up": 14.51, "upward_expansion": 26.53, "deceleration": 49.42, "rotation_down": 73.29, "downward_expansion": 56.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.242667, 13.784545, 14.2284, 14.184366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.39, "trend_reference": 14.145497, "distance_from_trend": -0.124103, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.993676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.114874, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161421, "excess_performance": -0.332313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124103, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.555018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299056, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3859625, "relative_activity": 1.316687, "balance": 1.183421, "dry_up": 1.013184, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081021, "annualized_volatility": 0.361282, "from_high_reference": -0.2625, "from_low_reference": 0.10468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.145497, "fair_value_reference": 8.993676, "structural_low": 11.283252, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004318, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015678, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.018128, "worst_return": -0.021795, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083942, "worst_return": 0.067836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.107266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.122821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.327485, "worst_return": -0.112952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.733928, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.572372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.193152, "worst_return": 0.274705, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084713, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.211014, "volume": 736401, "typical_volume": 2597200.1, "trend": 3.242269, "fair_value": 2.514025, "relative_strength": 1.156357, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 3258135.45, "trend": 14.049564, "fair_value": 8.735684, "relative_strength": -6.193142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.937824, "energy": 14.244442, "activity_lines": [ 14.577333, 14.692, 14.575724, 14.38543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.77, "volume": 2060997, "typical_volume": 3248419.15, "trend": 14.098148, "fair_value": 8.80291, "relative_strength": -8.680878, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.644856, "energy": 10.877106, "activity_lines": [ 14.264667, 14.508364, 14.529455, 14.367393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.94, "volume": 1884348, "typical_volume": 2948658.2, "trend": 14.144702, "fair_value": 8.871077, "relative_strength": -7.298196, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.111719, "energy": 15.446098, "activity_lines": [ 14.096, 14.388727, 14.504163, 14.35719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.24, "volume": 4074883, "typical_volume": 2932969.3, "trend": 14.164076, "fair_value": 8.934917, "relative_strength": -12.41273, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.34144, "energy": 37.445321, "activity_lines": [ 13.786, 14.152, 14.408805, 14.298822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.39, "volume": 3859625, "typical_volume": 2931316.6, "trend": 14.145497, "fair_value": 8.993676, "relative_strength": -20.114874, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.518312, "energy": 60.015725, "activity_lines": [ 13.242667, 13.784545, 14.2284, 14.184366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }