{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5f0acbc-25e8-4c40-9fc8-25c31820266b", "symbol": "XTR", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS S&P 500 TAIL RISK ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.138, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.111, "architecture_energy": 48.72, "architecture_maturity": 46.182, "architecture_confidence": 69.369, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.55, "rotation_up": 49.56, "upward_expansion": 77.43, "deceleration": 63.82, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 6.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.550887, 28.418578, 28.194188, 27.733814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.2197, "trend_reference": 27.243511, "distance_from_trend": 0.072538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.169628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.43666, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092979, "excess_performance": -0.032646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024653, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00361, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002545, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.962709, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12693, "relative_activity": 1.286585, "balance": 4.962709, "dry_up": 0.759377, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023731, "annualized_volatility": 0.12673, "from_high_reference": -0.031207, "from_low_reference": 0.186346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.243511, "fair_value_reference": 23.169628, "structural_low": 24.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016769, "positive_rate": 0.741935, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": -0.001723, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.061901, "worst_return": -0.0479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.041311, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.006517, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.119705, "worst_return": -0.089389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062557, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014415, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142075, "worst_return": -0.029945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 27.000666, "fair_value": 22.904509, "relative_strength": -2.388704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.511896, "energy": 47.803461, "activity_lines": [ 28.345536, 28.305097, 27.77302, 27.385032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.2547, "volume": 4852, "typical_volume": 12180.7, "trend": 27.062439, "fair_value": 22.969032, "relative_strength": -2.086423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.11895, "energy": 42.378023, "activity_lines": [ 28.33271, 28.303162, 27.875253, 27.465937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0286, "volume": 1825, "typical_volume": 10513.95, "trend": 27.103784, "fair_value": 23.031051, "relative_strength": -2.225651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.701552, "energy": 36.546711, "activity_lines": [ 28.238032, 28.255796, 27.947836, 27.52827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.235, "volume": 10597, "typical_volume": 10004.65, "trend": 27.164991, "fair_value": 23.096951, "relative_strength": -2.491335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.576769, "energy": 32.853646, "activity_lines": [ 28.240273, 28.246893, 28.030485, 27.601252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.2197, "volume": 12693, "typical_volume": 9865.65, "trend": 27.243511, "fair_value": 23.169628, "relative_strength": -2.43666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.110946, "energy": 48.719704, "activity_lines": [ 28.550887, 28.418578, 28.194188, 27.733814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }