{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5f15630-1d37-4948-8e50-15eb1932d937", "symbol": "OIH", "name": "VanEck Oil Services ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.442, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.422, "architecture_energy": 5.926, "architecture_maturity": 29.964, "architecture_confidence": 54.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.25, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 32.15, "deceleration": 54.21, "rotation_down": 31.62, "downward_expansion": 22.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.419666, 25.321909, 25.991167, 25.926236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.719999, "trend_reference": 25.365667, "distance_from_trend": 0.013969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.206218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.024385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143111, "excess_performance": 0.060228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013969, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272875, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088413, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060244, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.844169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3783, "relative_activity": 0.089167, "balance": 2.844169, "dry_up": 1.034013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050365, "annualized_volatility": 0.340143, "from_high_reference": -0.128136, "from_low_reference": 0.706476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.365667, "fair_value_reference": 20.206218, "structural_low": 22.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018908, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0486, "worst_return": -0.086416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.283395, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.225481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.283395, "worst_return": -0.283395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.18506, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.18506, "worst_return": -0.18506, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.253596, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253596, "worst_return": 0.253596, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069178, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.538995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"relative_strength": 4.37151, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.145013, "energy": 19.481577, "activity_lines": [ 25.152333, 25.322545, 26.052381, 25.891849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.719999, "volume": 3783, "typical_volume": 42425.95, "trend": 25.365667, "fair_value": 20.206218, "relative_strength": 6.024385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.422165, "energy": 5.926025, "activity_lines": [ 25.419666, 25.321909, 25.991167, 25.926236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }