{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5f15685-96d4-4e59-8f9f-266eb8addae3", "symbol": "600728", "name": "Pci Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.49, "architecture_energy": 37.816, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.903, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 19.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 37.25, "downward_expansion": 69.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 4.493695, 4.714301, 5.036426 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.75, "trend_reference": 5.548783, "distance_from_trend": -0.143956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.323069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.481295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309593, "excess_performance": -0.266389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143956, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130062, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036148, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700152, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193690331, "relative_activity": 1.429278, "balance": 0.700152, "dry_up": 1.490666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073286, "annualized_volatility": 0.334175, "from_high_reference": -0.444444, "from_low_reference": 0.167076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.548783, "fair_value_reference": 5.323069, "structural_low": 4.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.005422, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.022383, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.242744, "worst_return": -0.134078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058528, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097072, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.268293, "worst_return": -0.24879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057451, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03236, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.527704, "worst_return": -0.27458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 4.37, "volume": 224734691, "typical_volume": 132325421.15, "trend": 5.66545, "fair_value": 5.341015, "relative_strength": -25.143855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.130593, "energy": 65.653265, "activity_lines": [ 4.27612, 4.387704, 4.762573, 5.144076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.86, "volume": 194368844, "typical_volume": 132790978.25, "trend": 5.613116, "fair_value": 5.330959, "relative_strength": -16.792928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.044778, "energy": 51.244654, "activity_lines": [ 4.474667, 4.447246, 4.740413, 5.092111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.75, "volume": 193690331, "typical_volume": 135516232.0, "trend": 5.548783, "fair_value": 5.323069, "relative_strength": -20.481295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.49025, "energy": 37.815743, "activity_lines": [ 4.594, 4.493695, 4.714301, 5.036426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }