{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b5fc299a-9145-4237-bdb7-646eba9822e1", "symbol": "PSEC", "name": "Prospect Capital Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.802, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.493, "architecture_energy": 31.429, "architecture_maturity": 31.755, "architecture_confidence": 91.702, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.52, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 47.65, "downward_expansion": 79.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.205387, 2.207183, 2.263105, 2.329491 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.33, "trend_reference": 2.420911, "distance_from_trend": -0.037553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.216778, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.874208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058051, "excess_performance": -0.245504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.155434, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28413145, "relative_activity": 1.106505, "balance": 1.155434, "dry_up": 0.940756, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082022, "annualized_volatility": 0.46177, "from_high_reference": -0.204241, "from_low_reference": 0.137764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.420911, "fair_value_reference": 3.216778, "structural_low": 2.047877, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.016547, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.40625, "median_excess_return": 0.001938, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.172202, "worst_return": -0.159209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010661, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.066438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.113327, "worst_return": -0.222378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017138, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.178105, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.080469, "worst_return": -0.156001, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.453327, "energy": 35.909218, "activity_lines": [ 2.225733, 2.234599, 2.331313, 2.393514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.214123, "volume": 23594945, "typical_volume": 25067190.05, "trend": 2.443469, "fair_value": 3.254347, "relative_strength": -18.695318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.214706, "energy": 34.417511, "activity_lines": [ 2.220178, 2.228973, 2.313623, 2.378689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.086196, "volume": 24194176, "typical_volume": 25504775.95, "trend": 2.437252, "fair_value": 3.240821, "relative_strength": -21.348045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.2161, "energy": 45.673764, "activity_lines": [ 2.176073, 2.203418, 2.285537, 2.355639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.13, "volume": 20425709, "typical_volume": 25552877.15, "trend": 2.428053, "fair_value": 3.228117, "relative_strength": -19.550959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.269935, "energy": 43.176068, "activity_lines": [ 2.152624, 2.186366, 2.264065, 2.335817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.33, "volume": 28413145, "typical_volume": 25678269.3, "trend": 2.420911, "fair_value": 3.216778, "relative_strength": -15.874208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.493346, "energy": 31.428804, "activity_lines": [ 2.205387, 2.207183, 2.263105, 2.329491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }