{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b6005994-faf7-44d3-8388-6e8953b1702c",
    "symbol": "QLD",
    "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA QQQ",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 94.127,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 28.244,
    "architecture_energy": 19.58,
    "architecture_maturity": 69.058,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.06,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.15,
        "rotation_up": 26.84,
        "upward_expansion": 50.42,
        "deceleration": 82.06,
        "rotation_down": 34.69,
        "downward_expansion": 28.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        87.35,
        88.761405,
        88.819355,
        84.568256
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 92.21,
    "trend_reference": 79.392301,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.161448,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 55.43987,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.663243,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 10.433495,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.340735,
    "excess_performance": 0.21511,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.161448,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087537,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.663243,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.153428,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104335,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.128949,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.340735,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.609832,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 23828182,
      "relative_activity": 0.951595,
      "balance": 1.609832,
      "dry_up": 0.961956,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.091214,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.427145,
      "from_high_reference": -0.088132,
      "from_low_reference": 0.629296
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 79.392301,
      "fair_value_reference": 55.43987,
      "structural_low": 56.595,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.024812,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016364,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.215443,
        "worst_return": -0.220721,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.108938,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.041357,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.273236,
        "worst_return": -0.307773,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.222702,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.115456,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.388523,
        "worst_return": -0.099352,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.277036,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.1148,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.602826,
        "worst_return": -0.500405,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.052562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.232264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.239897,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.129105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029637,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.053522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.280925,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.110412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "fair_value": 54.403883,
        "relative_strength": 7.990167,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 83.0,
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        "typical_volume": 24892323.8,
        "trend": 78.303308,
        "fair_value": 54.717014,
        "relative_strength": 4.67609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 32.556508,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 83.67,
        "volume": 30511108,
        "typical_volume": 25020612.95,
        "trend": 78.756127,
        "fair_value": 55.047719,
        "relative_strength": 4.073994,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.748625,
        "energy": 19.493737,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 92.21,
        "volume": 23828182,
        "typical_volume": 25040246.05,
        "trend": 79.392301,
        "fair_value": 55.43987,
        "relative_strength": 10.433495,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.24412,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}