{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b6013f5e-8537-4017-b2e1-926037a8e5f8",
    "symbol": "GTO",
    "name": "INVESCO ACTIVELY MANAGED ETF TRUST TOTAL RETURN BD ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 69.293,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.573,
    "architecture_energy": 63.163,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.537,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.368,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.23,
        "rotation_up": 10.21,
        "upward_expansion": 14.04,
        "deceleration": 37.41,
        "rotation_down": 70.11,
        "downward_expansion": 89.71
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 46.32,
    "trend_reference": 46.632823,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.006708,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 44.02534,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052121,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.229621,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.011741,
    "excess_performance": -0.137366,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006708,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.6e-05,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052121,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021111,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.112296,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01521,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011741,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.015668,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 0.76822,
      "balance": 1.015668,
      "dry_up": 0.797395,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
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      "annualized_volatility": 0.042694,
      "from_high_reference": -0.023444,
      "from_low_reference": 0.027612
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 44.02534,
      "structural_low": 45.8801,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
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        "median_return": -0.012947,
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        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -10.002802,
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        "energy": 23.349718,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 46.434533,
        "volume": 799290,
        "typical_volume": 1211210.7,
        "trend": 46.678045,
        "fair_value": 43.91718,
        "relative_strength": -8.26107,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.060248,
        "energy": 31.459284,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.518384,
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          46.57941,
          46.631516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 46.08,
        "volume": 913035,
        "typical_volume": 1207497.0,
        "trend": 46.660692,
        "fair_value": 43.951037,
        "relative_strength": -8.19941,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.993084,
        "energy": 60.742174,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.356192,
          46.477413,
          46.531699,
          46.592933
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 46.05,
        "volume": 1166774,
        "typical_volume": 1198222.55,
        "trend": 46.64512,
        "fair_value": 43.986449,
        "relative_strength": -8.951616,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.624415,
        "energy": 69.803334,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.218453,
          46.389911,
          46.485075,
          46.553533
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 46.32,
        "volume": 913445,
        "typical_volume": 1189041.4,
        "trend": 46.632823,
        "fair_value": 44.02534,
        "relative_strength": -11.229621,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.572681,
        "energy": 63.162654,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.219919,
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          46.466154,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}