{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b605d410-0e42-43fb-a392-508ccde72aa6",
    "symbol": "EMV-B",
    "name": "CI Emerging Markets Dividend Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 32.643,
    "architecture_energy": 24.431,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.323,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.021,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.35,
        "rotation_up": 22.7,
        "upward_expansion": 56.02,
        "deceleration": 91.14,
        "rotation_down": 31.96,
        "downward_expansion": 19.69
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.168667,
        42.65522,
        42.270562,
        41.259089
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 42.619999,
    "trend_reference": 39.961004,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.06654,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.682392,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38907,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.924757,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.130174,
    "excess_performance": 0.009753,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06654,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074787,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.38907,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062007,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.019248,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.074871,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130174,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.435055,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 14200,
      "relative_activity": 0.80636,
      "balance": 2.435055,
      "dry_up": 0.868825,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038136,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.225077,
      "from_high_reference": -0.054473,
      "from_low_reference": 0.353297
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.961004,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.682392,
      "structural_low": 35.720456,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.024896,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001585,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.104948,
        "worst_return": -0.020765,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.045345,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.050031,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.208484,
        "worst_return": -0.012133,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.053072,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010608,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.308463,
        "worst_return": 0.016049,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.143996,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02469,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.169956,
        "worst_return": 0.118035,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03245,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.032184,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022569,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000293,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.107868,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005884,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.130294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.005787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.116383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.056572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018886,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 5495.0,
        "trend": 22.851405,
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        "volume": 18200,
        "typical_volume": 20165.0,
        "trend": 35.939638,
        "fair_value": 28.827162,
        "relative_strength": 3.427025,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.930467,
        "energy": 78.566237,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.924766,
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          36.848725
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 19600.0,
        "trend": 36.140635,
        "fair_value": 28.934981,
        "relative_strength": 3.877641,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.419553,
        "energy": 82.681391,
        "activity_lines": [
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          37.803147,
          37.09517
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 42.168598,
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        "typical_volume": 20155.0,
        "trend": 36.451974,
        "fair_value": 29.060201,
        "relative_strength": 9.411835,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.212002,
        "energy": 93.017049,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.496133,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 40.745056,
        "volume": 22300,
        "typical_volume": 21025.0,
        "trend": 36.674929,
        "fair_value": 29.175086,
        "relative_strength": 6.406737,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 68.190257,
        "energy": 82.377156,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.585229,
          37.761044
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 41.571304,
        "volume": 16300,
        "typical_volume": 21600.0,
        "trend": 36.910571,
        "fair_value": 29.294058,
        "relative_strength": 6.448479,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.003076,
        "energy": 79.605971,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.937816,
          38.076939
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 42.696201,
        "volume": 104800,
        "typical_volume": 26230.0,
        "trend": 37.180409,
        "fair_value": 29.420817,
        "relative_strength": 8.188953,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.535652,
        "energy": 80.133087,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.450205
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 41.53149,
        "volume": 3700,
        "typical_volume": 25895.0,
        "trend": 37.421326,
        "fair_value": 29.537287,
        "relative_strength": 6.18642,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.210978,
        "energy": 62.614955,
        "activity_lines": [
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          38.73092
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 43.562267,
        "volume": 2200,
        "typical_volume": 25360.0,
        "trend": 37.720033,
        "fair_value": 29.667352,
        "relative_strength": 9.49081,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.693914,
        "energy": 73.278173,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 24560.0,
        "trend": 38.078688,
        "fair_value": 29.809118,
        "relative_strength": 12.009653,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 85.986665,
        "energy": 87.250403,
        "activity_lines": [
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          39.578529
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 43.299999,
        "volume": 1900,
        "typical_volume": 23630.0,
        "trend": 38.379215,
        "fair_value": 29.940988,
        "relative_strength": 8.281877,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.213973,
        "energy": 71.606438,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.454272,
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          41.010341,
          39.915388
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 44.130001,
        "volume": 2700,
        "typical_volume": 21825.0,
        "trend": 38.71005,
        "fair_value": 30.077829,
        "relative_strength": 9.331833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.022299,
        "energy": 73.494922,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.77714,
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          41.425189,
          40.286406
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 43.560001,
        "volume": 18200,
        "typical_volume": 20775.0,
        "trend": 39.033439,
        "fair_value": 30.206602,
        "relative_strength": 7.589331,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.61177,
        "energy": 63.493174,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.814422,
          43.279594,
          41.757413,
          40.599306
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.529999,
        "volume": 17800,
        "typical_volume": 19875.0,
        "trend": 39.278597,
        "fair_value": 30.324279,
        "relative_strength": 2.648421,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.468628,
        "energy": 42.699123,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.039802,
          43.049013,
          41.874801,
          40.760375
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.830002,
        "volume": 13700,
        "typical_volume": 18450.0,
        "trend": 39.527036,
        "fair_value": 30.438651,
        "relative_strength": 3.021821,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.155445,
        "energy": 31.897348,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.500667,
          42.884589,
          42.009258,
          40.924981
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.830002,
        "volume": 15500,
        "typical_volume": 17795.0,
        "trend": 39.74429,
        "fair_value": 30.556915,
        "relative_strength": 3.363775,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.198812,
        "energy": 23.323876,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.154001,
          42.700439,
          42.115854,
          41.07356
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.619999,
        "volume": 14200,
        "typical_volume": 17610.0,
        "trend": 39.961004,
        "fair_value": 30.682392,
        "relative_strength": 1.924757,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.643205,
        "energy": 24.430731,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.168667,
          42.65522,
          42.270562,
          41.259089
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}