{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b606d780-7e81-42b4-ade7-d6b1eb192a3f", "symbol": "HHFA", "name": "Hamburger Hafen und Logistik Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.522, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.465, "architecture_energy": 43.6, "architecture_maturity": 18.491, "architecture_confidence": 94.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 6.78, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 49.89, "downward_expansion": 77.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 21.705455, 21.729524, 21.890968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.700001, "trend_reference": 22.14, "distance_from_trend": -0.019873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.545115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.710895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044053, "excess_performance": -0.108693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15891, "relative_activity": 1.039283, "balance": 0.411425, "dry_up": 1.561246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011343, "annualized_volatility": 0.070104, "from_high_reference": -0.076596, "from_low_reference": 0.058537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.14, "fair_value_reference": 18.545115, "structural_low": 21.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.003861, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.018706, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.657033, "worst_return": -0.105912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.578035, "worst_return": -0.178681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008278, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034643, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.61079, "worst_return": -0.20438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 15510.05, "trend": 22.156667, "fair_value": 18.416175, "relative_strength": -3.785746, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.647734, "energy": 46.963555, "activity_lines": [ 21.706667, 21.732727, 21.775238, 21.956989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.6, "volume": 8260, "typical_volume": 14701.7, "trend": 22.166667, "fair_value": 18.4795, "relative_strength": -5.710812, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.661, "energy": 47.562316, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 21.709091, 21.744762, 21.921075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 15891, "typical_volume": 15290.35, "trend": 22.14, "fair_value": 18.545115, "relative_strength": -7.710895, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.465182, "energy": 43.600428, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 21.705455, 21.729524, 21.890968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }