{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b60d152b-2465-4bb5-97d5-309850581f4c", "symbol": "FINC", "name": "Forstrong Global Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.479, "architecture_energy": 62.295, "architecture_maturity": 47.494, "architecture_confidence": 64.195, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.53, "rotation_up": 55.14, "upward_expansion": 83.83, "deceleration": 64.77, "rotation_down": 27.98, "downward_expansion": 10.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.144666, 23.116839, 22.963077, 22.852879 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.32, "trend_reference": 22.760416, "distance_from_trend": 0.024586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.867756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117514, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.29562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028821, "excess_performance": -0.091601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015598, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028821, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.031011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 202, "relative_activity": 0.05923, "balance": 0.031011, "dry_up": 0.110396, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0065, "annualized_volatility": 0.054537, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.074468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.760416, "fair_value_reference": 20.867756, "structural_low": 22.196802, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006154, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.008831, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.01832, "worst_return": -0.03268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00066, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.040313, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.037491, "worst_return": -0.010531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039328, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100801, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039598, "worst_return": 0.039059, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.816309, "energy": 54.286991, "activity_lines": [ 23.039999, 23.036272, 22.867652, 22.786654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.139999, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 3431.45, "trend": 22.729309, "fair_value": 20.838466, "relative_strength": -6.38427, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.035141, "energy": 54.47753, "activity_lines": [ 23.063332, 23.062828, 22.908658, 22.81477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.32, "volume": 202, "typical_volume": 3410.45, "trend": 22.760416, "fair_value": 20.867756, "relative_strength": -8.29562, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.478625, "energy": 62.295069, "activity_lines": [ 23.144666, 23.116839, 22.963077, 22.852879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }