{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b60fd254-fdbd-4f2d-8188-7609d33189e8", "symbol": "00666R", "name": "Fubon Hang Seng H-Share Inverse Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.458, "architecture_energy": 24.023, "architecture_maturity": 59.773, "architecture_confidence": 73.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.02, "rotation_up": 17.09, "upward_expansion": 50.19, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 45.27, "downward_expansion": 27.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.152667, 9.398727, 9.335333, 9.253161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.02, "trend_reference": 9.108, "distance_from_trend": -0.009662, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.0775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.362942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069988, "excess_performance": -0.309324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045879, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1276000, "relative_activity": 2.276077, "balance": 0.666627, "dry_up": 2.103973, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044346, "annualized_volatility": 0.20902, "from_high_reference": -0.135187, "from_low_reference": 0.13602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.108, "fair_value_reference": 12.0775, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028863, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02042, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101382, "worst_return": -0.059645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005573, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053052, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.266033, "worst_return": -0.026015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.108943, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.087291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273089, "worst_return": -0.055203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059532, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034436, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013483, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 14.3, "volume": 1422000, "typical_volume": 1139850.6, "trend": 14.546, "fair_value": 13.575513, "relative_strength": -16.609402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"direction": 63.233659, "energy": 67.356523, "activity_lines": [ 9.76, 9.624727, 9.393619, 9.256258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.3, "volume": 1126032, "typical_volume": 500313.6, "trend": 9.093, "fair_value": 12.150641, "relative_strength": -24.899523, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.397844, "energy": 30.324666, "activity_lines": [ 9.584667, 9.594182, 9.39581, 9.270473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.9, "volume": 1212000, "typical_volume": 516513.6, "trend": 9.095333, "fair_value": 12.110897, "relative_strength": -26.40982, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.912079, "energy": 17.317047, "activity_lines": [ 9.3, 9.484182, 9.359381, 9.258022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.02, "volume": 1276000, "typical_volume": 560613.6, "trend": 9.108, "fair_value": 12.0775, "relative_strength": -26.362942, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.457515, "energy": 24.022795, "activity_lines": [ 9.152667, 9.398727, 9.335333, 9.253161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }