{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6130c89-19fa-455a-a085-f02a794ecf41", "symbol": "IMBE", "name": "iShares US Mortgage Backed Securities UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.901, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.085, "architecture_energy": 59.699, "architecture_maturity": 4.723, "architecture_confidence": 85.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.8, "rotation_up": 10.67, "upward_expansion": 13.01, "deceleration": 37.89, "rotation_down": 65.85, "downward_expansion": 86.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.545933, 4.562273, 4.572117, 4.581481 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.5535, "trend_reference": 4.595033, "distance_from_trend": -0.009039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.422071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.622826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013967, "excess_performance": -0.13063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001857, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.210526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85403, "relative_activity": 1.778505, "balance": 1.210526, "dry_up": 1.222424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009494, "annualized_volatility": 0.046715, "from_high_reference": -0.037315, "from_low_reference": 0.018908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.595033, "fair_value_reference": 4.422071, "structural_low": 4.5065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004218, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005148, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.039452, "worst_return": -0.05366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002332, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.071219, "worst_return": -0.078942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02253, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008028, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.022586, "worst_return": -0.089972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.965866, "energy": 18.036125, "activity_lines": [ 4.590833, 4.5854, 4.587567, 4.595542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.5755, "volume": 36660, "typical_volume": 46801.8, "trend": 4.602633, "fair_value": 4.41659, "relative_strength": -10.582668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.234524, "energy": 15.718779, "activity_lines": [ 4.585433, 4.584336, 4.585755, 4.593739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5285, "volume": 70853, "typical_volume": 46188.15, "trend": 4.600117, "fair_value": 4.418151, "relative_strength": -11.068476, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.237365, "energy": 51.883087, "activity_lines": [ 4.5651, 4.575127, 4.579988, 4.588956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.528, "volume": 41885, "typical_volume": 47812.55, "trend": 4.59725, "fair_value": 4.419997, "relative_strength": -11.477605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.902754, "energy": 65.351437, "activity_lines": [ 4.5481, 4.566155, 4.574681, 4.584303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5535, "volume": 85403, "typical_volume": 48019.55, "trend": 4.595033, "fair_value": 4.422071, "relative_strength": -11.622826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.085264, "energy": 59.698542, "activity_lines": [ 4.545933, 4.562273, 4.572117, 4.581481 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }