{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b61838f3-f182-4e4d-8d25-eb139641b59c", "symbol": "MFDX", "name": "PIMCO EQUITY SERIES RAFI DYNAMIC MULTI FACTOR INTL EQTY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.762, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.851, "architecture_energy": 42.878, "architecture_maturity": 35.434, "architecture_confidence": 79.068, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.32, "rotation_up": 54.69, "upward_expansion": 79.47, "deceleration": 51.72, "rotation_down": 21.13, "downward_expansion": 8.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.82436, 41.622156, 41.502684, 41.280472 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.8033, "trend_reference": 41.041775, "distance_from_trend": 0.04292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.520834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.817452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036054, "excess_performance": -0.089571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036054, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67703, "relative_activity": 0.72177, "balance": 0.883272, "dry_up": 1.08383, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024301, "annualized_volatility": 0.163355, "from_high_reference": -0.00187, "from_low_reference": 0.216503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.041775, "fair_value_reference": 32.520834, "structural_low": 37.909421, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.015901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007178, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.062034, "worst_return": -0.099487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024924, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.037121, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.119626, "worst_return": -0.085532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062202, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.054373, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166803, "worst_return": -0.01257, 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"close": 41.125, "volume": 60680, "typical_volume": 98175.05, "trend": 40.730751, "fair_value": 32.216567, "relative_strength": -2.908493, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.643169, "energy": 15.267864, "activity_lines": [ 41.336065, 41.382898, 41.254844, 41.087584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.0125, "volume": 225357, "typical_volume": 102857.1, "trend": 40.819758, "fair_value": 32.309825, "relative_strength": -2.585616, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.805289, "energy": 11.905573, "activity_lines": [ 41.207333, 41.316714, 41.267348, 41.105761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.6466, "volume": 52919, "typical_volume": 100016.7, "trend": 40.922125, "fair_value": 32.411676, "relative_strength": -2.146519, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.470029, "energy": 16.301851, "activity_lines": [ 41.340007, 41.3656, 41.335475, 41.159105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.8033, "volume": 67703, "typical_volume": 93801.35, "trend": 41.041775, "fair_value": 32.520834, "relative_strength": -2.817452, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.850974, "energy": 42.878426, "activity_lines": [ 41.82436, 41.622156, 41.502684, 41.280472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }