{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6198da4-1154-4ac3-a7b0-45ec6c067cd6", "symbol": "HCAS", "name": "HSBC MSCI CHINA A UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.339, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.26, "architecture_energy": 22.187, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.913, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.15, "rotation_up": 18.14, "upward_expansion": 43.66, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 46.3, "downward_expansion": 35.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.233333, 11.389818, 11.422571, 11.322968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.43, "trend_reference": 11.188667, "distance_from_trend": 0.021569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.3375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.075424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057354, "excess_performance": 0.004043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030485, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057354, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.143284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35527, "relative_activity": 0.99894, "balance": 1.143284, "dry_up": 1.217745, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031967, "annualized_volatility": 0.163403, "from_high_reference": -0.045113, "from_low_reference": 0.241042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.188667, "fair_value_reference": 9.3375, "structural_low": 10.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008743, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.005716, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.066792, "worst_return": -0.056255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010151, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000912, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.055769, "worst_return": -0.094258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.104628, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.063101, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.163194, "worst_return": -0.171144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.03588, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.03588, "worst_return": -0.03588, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.440308, "energy": 15.754087, "activity_lines": [ 11.485333, 11.551091, 11.439095, 11.308645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.24, "volume": 90494, "typical_volume": 37244.05, "trend": 11.164, "fair_value": 9.308974, "relative_strength": 1.552832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.819756, "energy": 20.623613, "activity_lines": [ 11.353333, 11.492545, 11.43481, 11.315204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.03, "volume": 24258, "typical_volume": 35460.5, "trend": 11.175667, "fair_value": 9.320641, "relative_strength": -2.060942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.113595, "energy": 24.218084, "activity_lines": [ 11.197333, 11.400727, 11.409286, 11.306559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.43, "volume": 35527, "typical_volume": 35564.7, "trend": 11.188667, "fair_value": 9.3375, "relative_strength": -1.075424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.260164, "energy": 22.187051, "activity_lines": [ 11.233333, 11.389818, 11.422571, 11.322968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }