{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b62270c8-f101-4a6c-a573-a146879153d7", "symbol": "2080", "name": "National Gas and Industrialization Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.07, "architecture_energy": 92.353, "architecture_maturity": 39.088, "architecture_confidence": 82.775, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 9.35, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 85.6, "downward_expansion": 99.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.530001, 68.313636, 72.469285, 74.928479 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 63.450001, "trend_reference": 78.198078, "distance_from_trend": -0.188599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.961087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21629, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.010099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.279744, "excess_performance": -0.247914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.037069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1418024, "relative_activity": 2.884169, "balance": 0.037069, "dry_up": 1.324021, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054858, "annualized_volatility": 0.214227, "from_high_reference": -0.32751, "from_low_reference": 0.017642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.198078, "fair_value_reference": 80.961087, "structural_low": 62.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.026639, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.022601, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.211981, "worst_return": -0.108421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.113937, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.46219, "worst_return": -0.217529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091714, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.120176, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.526072, "worst_return": -0.224915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -76.935586, "energy": 82.687436, "activity_lines": [ 72.106665, 74.116362, 76.886189, 78.620739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.150002, "volume": 371120, "typical_volume": 477990.35, "trend": 80.711284, "fair_value": 80.95192, "relative_strength": -11.385068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.097141, "energy": 85.712387, "activity_lines": [ 70.746666, 72.972727, 76.015713, 77.83623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.300003, "volume": 447500, "typical_volume": 451379.2, "trend": 79.944258, "fair_value": 80.973569, "relative_strength": -14.209603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.847363, "energy": 89.237689, "activity_lines": [ 69.336667, 71.657273, 75.009047, 76.970986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.849998, "volume": 367216, "typical_volume": 450897.55, "trend": 79.014606, "fair_value": 80.958726, "relative_strength": -16.79519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.35281, "energy": 93.251809, "activity_lines": [ 67.22, 69.899091, 73.728571, 75.932647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.450001, "volume": 1418024, "typical_volume": 491657.75, "trend": 78.198078, "fair_value": 80.961087, "relative_strength": -19.010099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.069724, "energy": 92.352703, "activity_lines": [ 65.530001, 68.313636, 72.469285, 74.928479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }