{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b623b421-2d5b-4ea3-b9fb-e60e542158fe", "symbol": "EMERG", "name": "Franklin FTSE Emerging Markets", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.284, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.781, "architecture_energy": 32.306, "architecture_maturity": 45.858, "architecture_confidence": 66.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.98, "rotation_up": 38.24, "upward_expansion": 65.54, "deceleration": 84.73, "rotation_down": 26.73, "downward_expansion": 15.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.974, 29.009091, 28.797215, 28.374925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.33, "trend_reference": 27.8945, "distance_from_trend": 0.051462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.315057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.246417, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078705, "excess_performance": -0.092186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051462, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062576, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391282, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4251, "relative_activity": 2.310766, "balance": 0.391282, "dry_up": 2.972033, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023381, "annualized_volatility": 0.147092, "from_high_reference": -0.006268, "from_low_reference": 0.229769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.8945, "fair_value_reference": 25.315057, "structural_low": 25.334999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 23.205, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 651, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 28.955, "volume": 1692, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 28.32, "volume": 1180, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 28.465, "volume": 1044, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 28.825001, "volume": 344, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.873488, "energy": 69.109387, "activity_lines": [ 28.975, 28.746182, 28.06731, 27.697333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.67, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 1244.05, "trend": 27.254167, "fair_value": 25.04189, "relative_strength": -4.582899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.78842, "energy": 52.922295, "activity_lines": [ 28.920667, 28.766727, 28.165143, 27.794893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.280001, "volume": 915, "typical_volume": 1159.65, "trend": 27.375667, "fair_value": 25.092952, "relative_strength": -5.313071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.794697, "energy": 62.030723, "activity_lines": [ 29.056, 28.886909, 28.314024, 27.925592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.360001, "volume": 614, "typical_volume": 1078.75, "trend": 27.5095, "fair_value": 25.14375, "relative_strength": -4.615989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.147248, "energy": 65.768567, "activity_lines": [ 29.187667, 29.000546, 28.461548, 28.053613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.995001, "volume": 13192, "typical_volume": 1563.15, "trend": 27.6245, "fair_value": 25.189059, "relative_strength": -4.365446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.145482, "energy": 47.375133, "activity_lines": [ 29.140001, 29.022364, 28.566476, 28.149452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.690001, "volume": 337, "typical_volume": 1541.45, "trend": 27.727167, "fair_value": 25.229768, "relative_strength": -5.116089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.248568, "energy": 39.802364, "activity_lines": [ 28.982668, 28.988001, 28.635596, 28.218194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.635, "volume": 4090, "typical_volume": 1716.9, "trend": 27.8085, "fair_value": 25.268908, "relative_strength": -5.84308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.005831, "energy": 29.698078, "activity_lines": [ 28.861334, 28.93691, 28.688429, 28.276764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.33, "volume": 4251, "typical_volume": 1839.65, "trend": 27.8945, "fair_value": 25.315057, "relative_strength": -6.246417, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.781111, "energy": 32.306391, "activity_lines": [ 28.974, 29.009091, 28.797215, 28.374925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }