{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b624b2e0-4c15-4b7f-8cb3-1590fb227f05", "symbol": "VFEA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.566, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.766, "architecture_energy": 46.693, "architecture_maturity": 63.262, "architecture_confidence": 77.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.98, "rotation_up": 53.52, "upward_expansion": 81.85, "deceleration": 64.51, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 6.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.399999, 70.132908, 69.305523, 68.168472 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 71.839996, "trend_reference": 66.919666, "distance_from_trend": 0.073526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.985417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.03301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109498, "excess_performance": 0.026615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00033, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.470622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21728, "relative_activity": 4.151001, "balance": 2.470622, "dry_up": 1.875096, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027379, "annualized_volatility": 0.168762, "from_high_reference": -0.002361, "from_low_reference": 0.220938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.919666, "fair_value_reference": 56.985417, "structural_low": 59.759998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.006594, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.052512, "worst_return": -0.035732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017987, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002389, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.076998, "worst_return": -0.108995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05098, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031035, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106725, "worst_return": -0.125724, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.34962, "energy": 42.650163, "activity_lines": [ 69.625332, 69.440181, 68.371047, 67.373311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.800003, "volume": 1864, "typical_volume": 4267.4, "trend": 66.449999, "fair_value": 56.69734, "relative_strength": -1.33881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.935006, "energy": 41.038503, "activity_lines": [ 69.582667, 69.578727, 68.644428, 67.605548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.029999, "volume": 10640, "typical_volume": 4556.6, "trend": 66.694666, "fair_value": 56.833526, "relative_strength": -1.133231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.232752, "energy": 37.954583, "activity_lines": [ 69.726667, 69.715636, 68.905523, 67.836516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.839996, "volume": 21728, "typical_volume": 5234.4, "trend": 66.919666, "fair_value": 56.985417, "relative_strength": 0.03301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.766218, "energy": 46.69301, "activity_lines": [ 70.399999, 70.132908, 69.305523, 68.168472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }