{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6273c2f-a6dd-470e-b6f0-c326d01cb77a", "symbol": "PKX", "name": "POSCO Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.578, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.426, "architecture_energy": 38.009, "architecture_maturity": 19.876, "architecture_confidence": 66.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.89, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 49.07, "downward_expansion": 66.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.162, 54.090364, 60.11381, 61.60028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 57.77, "trend_reference": 62.687667, "distance_from_trend": -0.078447, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.206963, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.319422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086929, "excess_performance": -0.212554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078447, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.506606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.583492, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869511, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1386309, "relative_activity": 0.873185, "balance": 0.869511, "dry_up": 1.072916, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120895, "annualized_volatility": 0.601205, "from_high_reference": -0.374784, "from_low_reference": 0.293985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.687667, "fair_value_reference": 62.206963, "structural_low": 48.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006329, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.015845, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.288144, "worst_return": -0.178905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.072776, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.127488, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.157811, "worst_return": -0.288079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.133235, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.127079, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.342816, "worst_return": -0.297721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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63.511273, "relative_strength": -18.980441, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.950306, "energy": 61.459557, "activity_lines": [ 53.630667, 59.307273, 63.964238, 63.935355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.8, "volume": 1687493, "typical_volume": 1486394.45, "trend": 62.597667, "fair_value": 63.205938, "relative_strength": -19.681096, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.676636, "energy": 67.887306, "activity_lines": [ 52.006, 56.607636, 62.655238, 63.173763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.34, "volume": 1546194, "typical_volume": 1503180.3, "trend": 62.540333, "fair_value": 62.819671, "relative_strength": -16.323601, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.376635, "energy": 68.310537, "activity_lines": [ 51.729333, 54.932, 61.582381, 62.511978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.17, "volume": 2193653, "typical_volume": 1567478.85, "trend": 62.531, "fair_value": 62.484753, "relative_strength": -15.689736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.617746, "energy": 53.915517, "activity_lines": [ 52.286, 53.898909, 60.62019, 61.907441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.77, "volume": 1386309, "typical_volume": 1587647.2, "trend": 62.687667, "fair_value": 62.206963, "relative_strength": -11.319422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.425737, "energy": 38.008564, "activity_lines": [ 54.162, 54.090364, 60.11381, 61.60028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }