{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b62fd9a7-48fa-438d-87ce-07d214ba1742", "symbol": "OIA", "name": "Invesco Municipal Income Opportunities Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.159, "architecture_energy": 13.878, "architecture_maturity": 19.602, "architecture_confidence": 75.949, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.42, "rotation_up": 32.96, "upward_expansion": 59.25, "deceleration": 83.61, "rotation_down": 23.45, "downward_expansion": 13.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.102754, 6.115798, 6.095692, 6.085081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.09, "trend_reference": 6.078555, "distance_from_trend": 0.001883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.675433, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073046, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.670569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000965, "excess_performance": -0.12466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001883, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013655, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.108904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 882657, "relative_activity": 1.593149, "balance": 1.108904, "dry_up": 1.13637, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025292, "annualized_volatility": 0.109851, "from_high_reference": -0.037915, "from_low_reference": 0.159086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.078555, "fair_value_reference": 5.675433, "structural_low": 5.786558, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001445, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.014559, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.045083, "worst_return": -0.055231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059617, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.073125, "worst_return": -0.100768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026005, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.130494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032338, "worst_return": -0.09302, "sufficient": true }, { 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528434.6, "trend": 6.074171, "fair_value": 5.669989, "relative_strength": -6.66563, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.203441, "energy": 17.594315, "activity_lines": [ 6.120902, 6.118879, 6.093348, 6.08406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.09, "volume": 882657, "typical_volume": 554032.9, "trend": 6.078555, "fair_value": 5.675433, "relative_strength": -8.670569, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.15894, "energy": 13.87803, "activity_lines": [ 6.102754, 6.115798, 6.095692, 6.085081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }