{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6325ec5-df0f-4f1c-b2c8-1d164acaaed1", "symbol": "N1CL34", "name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.795, "architecture_energy": 24.347, "architecture_maturity": 31.646, "architecture_confidence": 70.455, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 11.02, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 65.59, "rotation_down": 52.5, "downward_expansion": 57.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.705335, 98.089818, 95.939619, 97.488344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 96.230003, "trend_reference": 102.159333, "distance_from_trend": -0.05804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 108.960256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.794074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.157651, "excess_performance": -0.100602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116834, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118364, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157651, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2002, "relative_activity": 0.557071, "balance": 0.802491, "dry_up": 0.737729, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070248, "annualized_volatility": 0.507597, "from_high_reference": -0.336345, "from_low_reference": 0.285123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.159333, "fair_value_reference": 108.960256, "structural_low": 74.879997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008573, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.378754, "worst_return": -0.12003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121944, "worst_return": -0.173247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004219, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.681923, "worst_return": -0.362138, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 94.910004, "volume": 802, "typical_volume": 3228.0, "trend": 104.426333, "fair_value": 108.851154, "relative_strength": -21.746522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.767901, "energy": 19.325167, "activity_lines": [ 98.199334, 99.056181, 96.025571, 98.618408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.0, "volume": 6338, "typical_volume": 3493.8, "trend": 103.319666, "fair_value": 108.895448, "relative_strength": -23.067313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.912816, "energy": 29.376154, "activity_lines": [ 96.069334, 98.46709, 95.860571, 97.945741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.230003, "volume": 2002, "typical_volume": 3593.8, "trend": 102.159333, "fair_value": 108.960256, "relative_strength": -17.794074, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.795054, "energy": 24.347032, "activity_lines": [ 95.705335, 98.089818, 95.939619, 97.488344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }