{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b632a58e-daa7-4a79-91b1-ee74f7b3c5ef", "symbol": "300657", "name": "Xiamen Hongxin Electronics Technology Group Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.377, "architecture_energy": 26.868, "architecture_maturity": 32.391, "architecture_confidence": 47.021, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.61, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 15.42, "deceleration": 64.33, "rotation_down": 59.69, "downward_expansion": 40.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.056, 36.745272, 38.469047, 37.292559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.5, "trend_reference": 35.563333, "distance_from_trend": 0.026338, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.119936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.453029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.293389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172126, "excess_performance": 0.164726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026338, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.453029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062934, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.372258, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142200857, "relative_activity": 0.792251, "balance": 1.372258, "dry_up": 0.775777, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192645, "annualized_volatility": 0.789365, "from_high_reference": -0.376601, "from_low_reference": 0.39313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.563333, "fair_value_reference": 25.119936, "structural_low": 27.59, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.064385, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045368, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.775582, "worst_return": -0.163389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.136646, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.121863, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.430341, "worst_return": -0.130106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.235193, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.057766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.760671, "worst_return": -0.406329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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40.036286, 37.768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 144972999, "typical_volume": 184809980.85, "trend": 34.974666, "fair_value": 24.879615, "relative_strength": -1.447567, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.349692, "energy": 16.736681, "activity_lines": [ 38.206666, 40.884727, 39.583047, 37.622946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 153169439, "typical_volume": 184716681.9, "trend": 35.127666, "fair_value": 24.934743, "relative_strength": -4.081165, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.841382, "energy": 20.672556, "activity_lines": [ 35.337332, 39.04709, 39.058428, 37.418129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 116632496, "typical_volume": 180526637.5, "trend": 35.268667, "fair_value": 25.0075, "relative_strength": -2.029007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.150629, "energy": 30.151323, "activity_lines": [ 33.567999, 37.316182, 38.547952, 37.213118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.5, "volume": 142200857, "typical_volume": 179489581.0, "trend": 35.563333, "fair_value": 25.119936, "relative_strength": 6.293389, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.37684, "energy": 26.868097, "activity_lines": [ 34.056, 36.745272, 38.469047, 37.292559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }