{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b633a9a7-2cab-4672-b2ee-6779f8da61e2", "symbol": "MARR", "name": "MARR S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.115, "architecture_energy": 57.723, "architecture_maturity": 58.625, "architecture_confidence": 87.992, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 18.49, "upward_expansion": 9.69, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 60.2, "downward_expansion": 80.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.466667, 6.586909, 6.910185, 7.142442 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.44, "trend_reference": 7.523876, "distance_from_trend": -0.144058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.074086, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.642406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2583, "excess_performance": -0.429191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136415, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1653672, "relative_activity": 2.500248, "balance": 0.976496, "dry_up": 1.73732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059077, "annualized_volatility": 0.435177, "from_high_reference": -0.312079, "from_low_reference": 0.07238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.523876, "fair_value_reference": 9.074086, "structural_low": 6.005335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005357, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.018311, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.313364, "worst_return": -0.164336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014558, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.108941, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.133886, "worst_return": -0.182999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056818, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.200776, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.3291, "worst_return": -0.21761, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.039125, "energy": 64.374406, "activity_lines": [ 6.794, 6.858, 7.152773, 7.395081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.25, "volume": 1574020, "typical_volume": 800975.1, "trend": 7.665946, "fair_value": 9.137947, "relative_strength": -32.81696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.833357, "energy": 65.91607, "activity_lines": [ 6.621333, 6.723636, 7.054755, 7.299228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.39, "volume": 886341, "typical_volume": 780686.2, "trend": 7.594235, "fair_value": 9.103363, "relative_strength": -30.915091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.116227, "energy": 60.732459, "activity_lines": [ 6.524, 6.641818, 6.977526, 7.216909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.44, "volume": 1653672, "typical_volume": 661403.1, "trend": 7.523876, "fair_value": 9.074086, "relative_strength": -31.642406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.115236, "energy": 57.722631, "activity_lines": [ 6.466667, 6.586909, 6.910185, 7.142442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }