{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6344c82-d8d2-47c5-acef-d8cf65cc4a01", "symbol": "SOF", "name": "Sofina Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.087, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.419, "architecture_energy": 80.421, "architecture_maturity": 10.941, "architecture_confidence": 60.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.34, "rotation_up": 82.18, "upward_expansion": 70.28, "deceleration": 18.01, "rotation_down": 16.13, "downward_expansion": 26.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.106664, 235.170907, 228.128458, 226.790586 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 248.399994, "trend_reference": 228.568687, "distance_from_trend": 0.086763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 223.154596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.587591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051146, "excess_performance": -0.123101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086763, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108747, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051146, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032536, "annualized_volatility": 0.239674, "from_high_reference": -0.111593, "from_low_reference": 0.232838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.568687, "fair_value_reference": 223.154596, "structural_low": 201.486255, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029795, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.054416, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.049038, "worst_return": -0.066087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008509, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016522, "worst_return": -0.120431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020619, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.088726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108745, "worst_return": -0.097098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 227.679998, 224.287999, 221.37279, 223.7451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 238.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.6, "trend": 228.655777, "fair_value": 222.568821, "relative_strength": -17.061391, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.932432, "energy": 60.751771, "activity_lines": [ 231.693331, 227.221607, 223.072351, 224.353911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 246.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.1, "trend": 228.77577, "fair_value": 222.833917, "relative_strength": -13.334452, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.20579, "energy": 74.766403, "activity_lines": [ 237.519999, 231.29818, 225.582914, 225.524507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 248.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.9, "trend": 228.568687, "fair_value": 223.154596, "relative_strength": -14.587591, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.419463, "energy": 80.420538, "activity_lines": [ 242.106664, 235.170907, 228.128458, 226.790586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }