{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b635b655-9c38-4f00-9007-73cdeff060c3", "symbol": "S68", "name": "Singapore Exchange Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.112, "architecture_energy": 62.173, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.493, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.94, "rotation_up": 54.55, "upward_expansion": 84.63, "deceleration": 68.61, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.222666, 24.047454, 23.215135, 22.268851 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.51, "trend_reference": 20.905942, "distance_from_trend": 0.172394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.520815, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.812761, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.916177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.410503, "excess_performance": 0.255668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.812761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089162, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.410503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.423614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12562100, "relative_activity": 1.192338, "balance": 1.423614, "dry_up": 1.378276, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038477, "annualized_volatility": 0.181566, "from_high_reference": -0.023895, "from_low_reference": 0.606281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.905942, "fair_value_reference": 13.520815, "structural_low": 17.010064, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.00788, "positive_rate": 0.560976, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": 0.013589, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.141929, "worst_return": -0.075454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.043952, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.0312, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.212076, "worst_return": -0.146057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.091568, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.052742, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.364154, "worst_return": -0.123679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.400165, "energy": 89.84245, "activity_lines": [ 24.020667, 23.303636, 22.291803, 21.282911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.879999, "volume": 16020800, "typical_volume": 11402978.7, "trend": 20.189327, "fair_value": 13.225489, "relative_strength": 10.733047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.750986, "energy": 80.706544, "activity_lines": [ 24.05, 23.517818, 22.541364, 21.536493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.65, "volume": 13996900, "typical_volume": 11067288.7, "trend": 20.41294, "fair_value": 13.32003, "relative_strength": 7.802326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.381741, "energy": 64.451624, "activity_lines": [ 23.916, 23.636182, 22.741517, 21.759763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.459999, "volume": 15504552, "typical_volume": 10910101.3, "trend": 20.66619, "fair_value": 13.419998, "relative_strength": 10.372344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.541305, "energy": 66.109619, "activity_lines": [ 24.071333, 23.856, 22.990604, 22.020863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.51, "volume": 12562100, "typical_volume": 10535686.2, "trend": 20.905942, "fair_value": 13.520815, "relative_strength": 8.916177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.112023, "energy": 62.173209, "activity_lines": [ 24.222666, 24.047454, 23.215135, 22.268851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }