{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b639fd7e-847f-47f8-bf80-dbe65923267c", "symbol": "CLE", "name": "Class Editori Spa", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.011, "architecture_energy": 11.548, "architecture_maturity": 16.472, "architecture_confidence": 56.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.07, "rotation_up": 41.33, "upward_expansion": 20.22, "deceleration": 46.11, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 33.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.139867, 0.1386, 0.13949, 0.139943 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.148, "trend_reference": 0.13975, "distance_from_trend": 0.059034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.105728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.399824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.020505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092251, "excess_performance": -0.078641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.399824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044148, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.236683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 573745, "relative_activity": 2.797313, "balance": 3.236683, "dry_up": 0.796986, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035603, "annualized_volatility": 0.237441, "from_high_reference": -0.121662, "from_low_reference": 0.165354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.13975, "fair_value_reference": 0.105728, "structural_low": 0.127, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088391, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015373, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.276423, "worst_return": 0.039959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.134247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314363, "worst_return": -0.233607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.233062, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.103225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.408811, "worst_return": -0.065753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -69.703161, "energy": 63.043616, "activity_lines": [ 0.1357, 0.137364, 0.139626, 0.139891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.136, "volume": 32649, "typical_volume": 321921.2, "trend": 0.140133, "fair_value": 0.104775, "relative_strength": -15.859355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.594372, "energy": 63.645303, "activity_lines": [ 0.135367, 0.136873, 0.139167, 0.13962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.137, "volume": 37649, "typical_volume": 209984.25, "trend": 0.139867, "fair_value": 0.105208, "relative_strength": -15.502912, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.102269, "energy": 56.681871, "activity_lines": [ 0.135733, 0.1367, 0.138783, 0.139418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.148, "volume": 573745, "typical_volume": 205105.75, "trend": 0.13975, "fair_value": 0.105728, "relative_strength": -11.020505, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.010631, "energy": 11.548314, "activity_lines": [ 0.139867, 0.1386, 0.13949, 0.139943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }