{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b63b0296-4651-44ac-94c0-c68ceaa1d7bd", "symbol": "^AXJO", "name": "S&P/ASX 200", "exchange": "INDEXES", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "stage_color": "amber", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "stage_age_weeks": 38, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "transition_score": 49.677, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 79.408, "composite_score": 45.093, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_color": "blue", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.04, "architecture_energy": 31.02, "architecture_maturity": 33.714, "architecture_confidence": 54.616, "architecture_age_weeks": 16, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.04, "energy": 31.02, "maturity": 33.714, "confidence": 54.616, "confirmation": 31.546, "age_weeks": 16, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "The Activity Lines are tightly grouped or crossing, so neither side has durable control. The prior directional regime and the next fast/slow rotation provide the context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.63, "rotation_up": 47.84, "upward_expansion": 46.32, "deceleration": 36.38, "rotation_down": 22.41, "downward_expansion": 11.65 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 8854.646615, "10": 8824.189116, "20": 8783.980027, "30": 8779.693122 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 0.317691, "10": 0.379904, "20": 0.20544, "30": 0.092493 }, "bullish_order": 0.75, "bearish_order": 0.25, "fan_width_atr": 0.434687, "fan_width_change_4": 0.15346, "fan_width_percentile": 0.259615, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 0.333938, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.199831, "price_acceptance": 0.333333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.708418, "accepted_above": 0.333333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.5 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The advance is losing directional efficiency near the upper range.", "body": "Stage 3 is a distribution diagnosis only when a flatter trend, weakening relative strength and supply evidence cluster. It can resolve back upward or break into Stage 4.", "phase": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "Stage 3 range intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 50/100." }, "latest_close": 8976.799805, "sma_30": 8788.516634, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.021424, "sma_30_slope": 0.004532, "fair_value": 8178.757061, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097575, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.013132, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -6.354132, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 3.309862, "range_position_52": 0.759595, "returns": { "13": 0.028294, "26": 0.012143, "52": 0.036343 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.073177, "52": -0.178492 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 49.3, "2": 54.59, "3": 73.07, "4": 45.41 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.021424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.004532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, 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Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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