{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b63d4a44-54bc-4770-8bc0-e639a4862756", "symbol": "MK", "name": "M.K. Real Estate Development Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.321, "architecture_energy": 33.05, "architecture_maturity": 15.922, "architecture_confidence": 61.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 51.37, "upward_expansion": 74.3, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 16.58, "downward_expansion": 3.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.592667, 0.584182, 0.559571, 0.550323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.59, "trend_reference": 0.538667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.36891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.528257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134615, "excess_performance": -0.05771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.572603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385300, "relative_activity": 0.490825, "balance": 11.572603, "dry_up": 1.328654, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118644, "annualized_volatility": 0.320955, "from_high_reference": -0.468468, "from_low_reference": 0.512821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.538667, "fair_value_reference": 1.36891, "structural_low": 0.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.019109, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011212, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.032258, "worst_return": -0.041667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.024884, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017921, "worst_return": -0.031847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0898, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.06633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025478, "worst_return": -0.154122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.186163, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.127539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.089172, "worst_return": -0.283154, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.20283, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.438356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.135593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.66, "volume": 1886800, "typical_volume": 2594078.0, "trend": 2.77288, "fair_value": 2.874563, "relative_strength": 0.709506, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.363321, "energy": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.68147, "energy": 50.824785, "activity_lines": [ 0.574, 0.552364, 0.537667, 0.535828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.62, "volume": 3007200, "typical_volume": 754780.0, "trend": 0.539333, "fair_value": 1.411346, "relative_strength": -11.666782, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.52682, "energy": 64.788174, "activity_lines": [ 0.593333, 0.567455, 0.545905, 0.541097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.59, "volume": 691800, "typical_volume": 781125.0, "trend": 0.539, "fair_value": 1.397949, "relative_strength": -15.796814, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.428556, "energy": 56.965047, "activity_lines": [ 0.595333, 0.575091, 0.551048, 0.544366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.58, "volume": 87700, "typical_volume": 774665.0, "trend": 0.538667, "fair_value": 1.384103, "relative_strength": -15.899438, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.078348, "energy": 49.2024, "activity_lines": [ 0.593333, 0.579455, 0.554952, 0.547011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.59, "volume": 385300, "typical_volume": 785005.0, "trend": 0.538667, "fair_value": 1.36891, "relative_strength": -13.528257, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.320607, "energy": 33.049638, "activity_lines": [ 0.592667, 0.584182, 0.559571, 0.550323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }