{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6480ac8-55a1-4d2e-bd4b-ed3021624e86", "symbol": "300303", "name": "Shenzhen Jufei Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.831, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.522, "architecture_energy": 68.349, "architecture_maturity": 18.699, "architecture_confidence": 72.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.51, "rotation_up": 16.26, "upward_expansion": 23.76, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 73.88, "downward_expansion": 65.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.114667, 7.824364, 8.528367, 8.738839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.31, "trend_reference": 8.689342, "distance_from_trend": -0.15874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.285652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.013124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044081, "excess_performance": 0.036681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044081, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390898, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251712377, "relative_activity": 0.590795, "balance": 0.390898, "dry_up": 0.615293, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154593, "annualized_volatility": 0.734131, "from_high_reference": -0.409215, "from_low_reference": 0.193957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.689342, "fair_value_reference": 6.285652, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072397, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025873, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.108108, "worst_return": -0.011494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050916, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237006, "worst_return": 0.017766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.268643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.258839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.418782, "worst_return": 0.118503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.384391, 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8.794355, 9.171361, 9.067477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.6, "volume": 253509380, "typical_volume": 511582330.4, "trend": 8.664617, "fair_value": 6.260407, "relative_strength": -14.931102, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.465655, "energy": 62.098525, "activity_lines": [ 7.658, 8.339927, 8.903633, 8.934028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 263344165, "typical_volume": 451734113.0, "trend": 8.670825, "fair_value": 6.271459, "relative_strength": -8.336422, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.62368, "energy": 66.354346, "activity_lines": [ 7.227333, 8.028545, 8.693452, 8.826634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.31, "volume": 251712377, "typical_volume": 426057176.3, "trend": 8.689342, "fair_value": 6.285652, "relative_strength": -9.013124, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.521968, "energy": 68.349462, "activity_lines": [ 7.114667, 7.824364, 8.528367, 8.738839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }