{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b64b9597-0a56-41a4-93eb-6bb08f6953b9", "symbol": "PJIO", "name": "PGIM ETF TRUST JENNISON INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.823, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.058, "architecture_energy": 18.586, "architecture_maturity": 24.955, "architecture_confidence": 80.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.41, "rotation_up": 19.23, "upward_expansion": 38.43, "deceleration": 84.09, "rotation_down": 43.2, "downward_expansion": 39.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.20906, 63.554442, 63.74541, 62.81531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.82, "trend_reference": 62.078937, "distance_from_trend": 0.028046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.036879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.686073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043504, "excess_performance": -0.08212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.076664, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4324, "relative_activity": 0.29491, "balance": 1.076664, "dry_up": 0.784898, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062726, "annualized_volatility": 0.294187, "from_high_reference": -0.099732, "from_low_reference": 0.203424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.078937, "fair_value_reference": 58.036879, "structural_low": 53.032, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 6e-05, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012822, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.00649, "worst_return": -0.139826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.099523, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.099523, "worst_return": -0.099523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.055083, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055083, "worst_return": 0.055083, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.534382, "energy": 41.832189, "activity_lines": [ 66.424713, 65.963255, 63.893394, 62.927839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.894, "volume": 4687, "typical_volume": 18202.2, "trend": 62.13853, "fair_value": 57.950071, "relative_strength": -10.22241, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.274051, "energy": 14.703556, "activity_lines": [ 64.413327, 65.155736, 63.786949, 62.846729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.9413, "volume": 28721, "typical_volume": 17934.35, "trend": 62.106633, "fair_value": 57.972065, "relative_strength": -9.314652, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.870908, "energy": 17.423932, "activity_lines": [ 62.787707, 64.420998, 63.692778, 62.769489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.0685, "volume": 8301, "typical_volume": 14844.85, "trend": 62.07163, "fair_value": 57.994667, "relative_strength": -9.821929, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.447621, "energy": 19.403509, "activity_lines": [ 61.842, 63.717247, 63.59866, 62.702512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.82, "volume": 4324, "typical_volume": 14662.1, "trend": 62.078937, "fair_value": 58.036879, "relative_strength": -8.686073, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.058439, "energy": 18.586105, "activity_lines": [ 62.20906, 63.554442, 63.74541, 62.81531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }