{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b64ce08a-c530-4cec-8d85-8c9b10b4f4c0", "symbol": "ADSK", "name": "Autodesk, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.287, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.88, "architecture_energy": 22.279, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 46.169, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.21, "rotation_up": 46.23, "upward_expansion": 27.52, "deceleration": 41.07, "rotation_down": 12.17, "downward_expansion": 47.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 200.389333, 191.599091, 192.372143, 195.542732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 216.100006, "trend_reference": 200.475, "distance_from_trend": 0.07794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 232.937563, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.392957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069802, "excess_performance": -0.104445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 233, "relative_activity": 1.213542, "balance": 0.52991, "dry_up": 1.188802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066088, "annualized_volatility": 0.422816, "from_high_reference": -0.226834, "from_low_reference": 0.294942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.475, "fair_value_reference": 232.937563, "structural_low": 166.880005, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006096, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.009066, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.262529, "worst_return": -0.179477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.052716, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000381, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.144695, "worst_return": -0.177337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039408, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013194, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.462878, 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188.220001, "volume": 440, "typical_volume": 197.35, "trend": 204.761001, "fair_value": 232.669551, "relative_strength": -32.529769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.705955, "energy": 43.454167, "activity_lines": [ 182.166666, 183.340728, 190.685906, 195.794302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.919998, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 183.65, "trend": 202.635001, "fair_value": 232.656602, "relative_strength": -32.782617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.215162, "energy": 26.460983, "activity_lines": [ 185.182665, 183.395272, 189.806382, 194.707786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.649994, "volume": 166, "typical_volume": 188.35, "trend": 201.173334, "fair_value": 232.759486, "relative_strength": -27.389408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.403335, "energy": 16.702709, "activity_lines": [ 191.21533, 186.038544, 190.308905, 194.579721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.100006, "volume": 233, "typical_volume": 192.0, "trend": 200.475, "fair_value": 232.937563, "relative_strength": -23.392957, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.879953, "energy": 22.279319, "activity_lines": [ 200.389333, 191.599091, 192.372143, 195.542732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }