{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b64dddb1-9c61-4e93-aa34-44d3077334cd", "symbol": "600423", "name": "Liuzhou Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.15, "architecture_energy": 24.398, "architecture_maturity": 91.472, "architecture_confidence": 74.212, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.11, "rotation_up": 29.0, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 20.55, "downward_expansion": 55.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.674667, 2.578, 2.658048, 2.874215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 3.171667, "distance_from_trend": -0.107725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.164615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.112394, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288945, "excess_performance": -0.245741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128344, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021075, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33378600, "relative_activity": 0.37616, "balance": 0.434233, "dry_up": 0.366235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088883, "annualized_volatility": 0.614339, "from_high_reference": -0.390086, "from_low_reference": 0.316279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.171667, "fair_value_reference": 3.164615, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.012931, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.004083, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.2287, "worst_return": -0.205212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.041775, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020107, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.275556, "worst_return": -0.199288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066066, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048866, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.355556, "worst_return": -0.172794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 106583198.75, "trend": 3.282333, "fair_value": 3.175897, "relative_strength": -23.180924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.520098, "energy": 56.277454, "activity_lines": [ 2.473333, 2.497455, 2.727381, 2.981462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.52, "volume": 27013400, "typical_volume": 102827923.75, "trend": 3.238667, "fair_value": 3.171795, "relative_strength": -24.802707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.718412, "energy": 42.758646, "activity_lines": [ 2.506, 2.488909, 2.681333, 2.93228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.71, "volume": 28432450, "typical_volume": 96914436.1, "trend": 3.201333, "fair_value": 3.168333, "relative_strength": -18.952129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.333903, "energy": 35.711141, "activity_lines": [ 2.586667, 2.522182, 2.660619, 2.898172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 33378600, "typical_volume": 88734997.95, "trend": 3.171667, "fair_value": 3.164615, "relative_strength": -17.112394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.149719, "energy": 24.397587, "activity_lines": [ 2.674667, 2.578, 2.658048, 2.874215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }