{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b64f9404-18c9-4c38-afe7-2f3c49d53247", "symbol": "B7J1", "name": "SRV Yhti\u00f6t Oyj", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.445, "architecture_energy": 84.456, "architecture_maturity": 30.343, "architecture_confidence": 77.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.04, "rotation_up": 74.55, "upward_expansion": 86.48, "deceleration": 50.36, "rotation_down": 13.8, "downward_expansion": 22.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.536, 5.406545, 5.355143, 5.312602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.06, "trend_reference": 5.25, "distance_from_trend": 0.154286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.891154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.312598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165385, "excess_performance": 0.100745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110861, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093126, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 26.753968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2380, "relative_activity": 3.618671, "balance": 26.753968, "dry_up": 0.908469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025387, "annualized_volatility": 0.232228, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.488943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.25, "fair_value_reference": 4.891154, "structural_low": 4.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023622, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008189, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.156489, "worst_return": -0.054726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07874, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043016, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114428, "worst_return": 0.003831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.139235, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015248, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258706, "worst_return": 0.019763, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.283582, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020929, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283582, "worst_return": 0.283582, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003937, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062271, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040293, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152091, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.73, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1128.25, "trend": 3.846667, "fair_value": 10.029526, "relative_strength": -8.885251, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.668273, "energy": 32.959145, "activity_lines": [ 3.79, 3.814, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.22, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 590.05, "trend": 5.121667, "fair_value": 4.858141, "relative_strength": -0.298699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.409114, "energy": 12.091356, "activity_lines": [ 5.229333, 5.254182, 5.27219, 5.237656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.26, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 549.85, "trend": 5.161333, "fair_value": 4.866987, "relative_strength": -0.538324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.124398, "energy": 15.418833, "activity_lines": [ 5.229333, 5.250545, 5.273143, 5.246581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 538.7, "trend": 5.195333, "fair_value": 4.876218, "relative_strength": -1.286034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.432085, "energy": 13.036051, "activity_lines": [ 5.258667, 5.261455, 5.279238, 5.256817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.06, "volume": 2380, "typical_volume": 657.7, "trend": 5.25, "fair_value": 4.891154, "relative_strength": 9.312598, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.444649, "energy": 84.455783, "activity_lines": [ 5.536, 5.406545, 5.355143, 5.312602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }