{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b65e08af-96fc-42f1-ad3d-1bb1b65ca241", "symbol": "300459", "name": "Zhejiang Jinke Tom Culture Industry Co., LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.608, "architecture_energy": 28.977, "architecture_maturity": 99.588, "architecture_confidence": 89.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.49, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 16.42, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 34.26, "downward_expansion": 66.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.651333, 3.572364, 3.701667, 3.887699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.78, "trend_reference": 4.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.102706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.830769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.217516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.02861, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.260274, "excess_performance": -0.267674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.217516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092151, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260274, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 689463097, "relative_activity": 1.788335, "balance": 0.581276, "dry_up": 1.591304, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.351229, "from_high_reference": -0.428139, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.212667, "fair_value_reference": 4.830769, "structural_low": 3.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.031722, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.34375, "median_excess_return": 0.018333, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.728814, "worst_return": -0.204225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019491, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040503, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.580128, "worst_return": -0.144578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.044572, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.960725, "worst_return": -0.133047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.185833, "energy": 57.621217, "activity_lines": [ 3.42, 3.490182, 3.714667, 3.944516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.84, "volume": 742690337, "typical_volume": 369595043.4, "trend": 4.239667, "fair_value": 4.843397, "relative_strength": -15.629318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.744966, "energy": 38.776841, "activity_lines": [ 3.563333, 3.534909, 3.709, 3.917355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.78, "volume": 689463097, "typical_volume": 385533612.05, "trend": 4.212667, "fair_value": 4.830769, "relative_strength": -20.02861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.607982, "energy": 28.977135, "activity_lines": [ 3.651333, 3.572364, 3.701667, 3.887699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }