{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b66a6c5b-313f-4863-9226-5690baf8810d", "symbol": "IEMG", "name": "ISHARES INC CORE MSCI EMERGING MKTS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.475, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.571, "architecture_energy": 15.127, "architecture_maturity": 29.348, "architecture_confidence": 92.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.54, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 47.11, "deceleration": 84.46, "rotation_down": 38.58, "downward_expansion": 29.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.454667, 79.358967, 79.567863, 78.109147 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 79.99, "trend_reference": 76.250215, "distance_from_trend": 0.049046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.238332, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.226946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094258, "excess_performance": -0.031367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063741, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002269, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512731, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50852380, "relative_activity": 0.812532, "balance": 1.512731, "dry_up": 0.961834, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056087, "annualized_volatility": 0.27253, "from_high_reference": -0.075153, "from_low_reference": 0.340468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.250215, "fair_value_reference": 57.238332, "structural_low": 66.456606, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001638, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002218, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.108436, "worst_return": -0.040911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024592, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002076, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.097043, "worst_return": -0.045636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047793, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144367, "worst_return": -0.062733, "sufficient": false }, { 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56.814864, "relative_strength": 1.355408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.115103, "energy": 18.098652, "activity_lines": [ 78.540667, 79.928946, 79.324617, 77.71535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.61, "volume": 67438519, "typical_volume": 64739477.35, "trend": 75.900478, "fair_value": 57.015477, "relative_strength": 0.81744, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.807756, "energy": 16.532128, "activity_lines": [ 77.978, 79.406353, 79.352954, 77.845307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.99, "volume": 50852380, "typical_volume": 62585047.85, "trend": 76.250215, "fair_value": 57.238332, "relative_strength": 0.226946, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.570841, "energy": 15.126863, "activity_lines": [ 78.454667, 79.358967, 79.567863, 78.109147 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }