{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b66d93ce-7b32-438c-8d5b-6873906c6b4f", "symbol": "TMOF", "name": "Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.015, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.606, "architecture_energy": 83.756, "architecture_maturity": 19.825, "architecture_confidence": 60.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 82.72, "upward_expansion": 71.92, "deceleration": 18.02, "rotation_down": 16.11, "downward_expansion": 27.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 491.040002, 471.741628, 445.545792, 438.641593 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 505.799988, "trend_reference": 440.66413, "distance_from_trend": 0.147813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 470.999984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073885, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.983845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10366, "excess_performance": -0.070587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073885, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139856, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168, "relative_activity": 4.335484, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 4.606452, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042787, "annualized_volatility": 0.310056, "from_high_reference": -0.074129, "from_low_reference": 0.348545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 440.66413, "fair_value_reference": 470.999984, "structural_low": 375.071023, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020489, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.014536, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.119132, "worst_return": -0.068991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004576, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.059329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183561, "worst_return": -0.317518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016853, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.064089, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.021369, "worst_return": -0.249619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4.45, "trend": 441.458408, "fair_value": 471.034753, "relative_strength": -12.672135, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.562166, "energy": 67.938309, "activity_lines": [ 455.880005, 438.056744, 424.832439, 428.025669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 490.100006, "volume": 314, "typical_volume": 19.4, "trend": 441.469786, "fair_value": 470.922893, "relative_strength": -9.501944, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.281639, "energy": 82.109868, "activity_lines": [ 470.540006, 450.198391, 431.462225, 431.163836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 492.700012, "volume": 232, "typical_volume": 31.0, "trend": 441.124986, "fair_value": 470.90961, "relative_strength": -8.800971, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.155639, "energy": 81.876935, "activity_lines": [ 480.313342, 460.772181, 438.075438, 434.469012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 505.799988, "volume": 168, "typical_volume": 38.75, "trend": 440.66413, "fair_value": 470.999984, "relative_strength": -8.983845, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.60589, "energy": 83.755848, "activity_lines": [ 491.040002, 471.741628, 445.545792, 438.641593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }