{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b66eac1f-3ad6-4cdd-800e-c823d8ba4946", "symbol": "3533", "name": "Lotes Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.098, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -49.13, "architecture_energy": 59.983, "architecture_maturity": 25.008, "architecture_confidence": 70.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.93, "rotation_up": 19.55, "upward_expansion": 20.29, "deceleration": 44.85, "rotation_down": 68.76, "downward_expansion": 61.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1744.402254, 1831.402459, 2027.662459, 2069.826383 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1595.0, "trend_reference": 2025.668079, "distance_from_trend": -0.212605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1445.002406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.016773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013202, "excess_performance": -0.358934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119617, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.770674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.591772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7996133, "relative_activity": 1.314702, "balance": 0.591772, "dry_up": 1.209226, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163027, "annualized_volatility": 0.627389, "from_high_reference": -0.450666, "from_low_reference": 0.423933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2025.668079, "fair_value_reference": 1445.002406, "structural_low": 1405.084199, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12987, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088759, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.154961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.536796, "worst_return": -0.125806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227859, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.199353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.294372, "worst_return": 0.079013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164234, "active": false }, { 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-27.041481, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.613918, "energy": 44.592453, "activity_lines": [ 1827.459554, 1901.371442, 2084.856356, 2097.076216 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1595.0, "volume": 7996133, "typical_volume": 6082088.05, "trend": 2025.668079, "fair_value": 1445.002406, "relative_strength": -31.016773, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.130252, "energy": 59.982991, "activity_lines": [ 1744.402254, 1831.402459, 2027.662459, 2069.826383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }