{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b670ad4d-6cb7-456c-af72-c83f9d1e18f3", "symbol": "WLMM3", "name": "WLM Participa\u00e7\u00f5es e Com\u00e9rcio de M\u00e1quinas e Ve\u00edculos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.481, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.984, "architecture_energy": 70.774, "architecture_maturity": 24.513, "architecture_confidence": 93.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.52, "rotation_up": 25.07, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.15, "rotation_down": 60.35, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.188001, 20.381993, 20.85011, 21.369601 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.940001, "trend_reference": 21.706905, "distance_from_trend": -0.081398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.838767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.39106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111804, "excess_performance": -0.054756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007657, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.833333, "balance": 0.043478, "dry_up": 0.833333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018678, "annualized_volatility": 0.234669, "from_high_reference": -0.170549, "from_low_reference": 0.049539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.706905, "fair_value_reference": 21.838767, "structural_low": 19.847004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.010321, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.183594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020356, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.042303, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.417141, "worst_return": -0.198489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.008451, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001481, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.445988, "worst_return": -0.247945, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.076957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039285, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010422, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.741747, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 585.0, "trend": 17.056097, "fair_value": 19.537956, "relative_strength": -6.622502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"close": 20.690001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 150.0, "trend": 21.659608, "fair_value": 21.769623, "relative_strength": -8.735291, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.500861, "energy": 48.060392, "activity_lines": [ 20.690001, 20.638163, 21.358355, 21.679868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.15, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 135.0, "trend": 21.693289, "fair_value": 21.792617, "relative_strength": -10.618924, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.93273, "energy": 69.588423, "activity_lines": [ 20.510001, 20.531632, 21.177273, 21.582474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.15, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.0, "trend": 21.696238, "fair_value": 21.818266, "relative_strength": -11.8931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.133867, "energy": 68.951466, "activity_lines": [ 20.366, 20.478658, 21.014429, 21.482907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.940001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 120.0, "trend": 21.706905, "fair_value": 21.838767, "relative_strength": -9.39106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.983853, "energy": 70.773653, "activity_lines": [ 20.188001, 20.381993, 20.85011, 21.369601 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }