{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b6783576-8c22-4096-ba04-c51b0851edb0", "symbol": "CURE", "name": "VanEck Genomics and Healthcare Innovators UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 54.615, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.12, "architecture_energy": 56.682, "architecture_maturity": 43.803, "architecture_confidence": 49.982, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.49, "rotation_up": 53.42, "upward_expansion": 75.44, "deceleration": 70.93, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 13.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.783667, 19.707255, 18.914948, 18.565198 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.455, "trend_reference": 18.370233, "distance_from_trend": 0.113486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.956545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139139, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.662912, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133743, "excess_performance": -0.037148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133743, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.164738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9138, "relative_activity": 3.557788, "balance": 1.164738, "dry_up": 1.555121, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036357, "annualized_volatility": 0.210212, "from_high_reference": -0.040122, "from_low_reference": 0.239697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.370233, "fair_value_reference": 17.956545, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01717, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010877, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.047089, "worst_return": -0.101288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021723, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056155, "worst_return": -0.236155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.113138, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.115309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033015, "worst_return": -0.193261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.032692, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.192911, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.032692, "worst_return": 0.032692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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18.455999, "volume": 151, "typical_volume": 2347.95, "trend": 18.276433, "fair_value": 17.912737, "relative_strength": -14.77924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.535969, "energy": 29.465645, "activity_lines": [ 18.021333, 17.662145, 17.577371, 17.833095 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 19.766001, "volume": 585, "typical_volume": 1879.85, "trend": 18.264133, "fair_value": 17.913519, "relative_strength": -5.764792, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.6265, "energy": 63.882192, "activity_lines": [ 18.659467, 18.073891, 17.780838, 17.929196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.955, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 1729.3, "trend": 18.2985, "fair_value": 17.927321, "relative_strength": -2.871104, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.865638, "energy": 84.433527, "activity_lines": [ 19.521933, 18.663818, 18.089333, 18.1028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.110001, "volume": 11429, "typical_volume": 1935.6, "trend": 18.331033, "fair_value": 17.935705, "relative_strength": -6.212891, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.318109, "energy": 81.169914, "activity_lines": [ 19.8912, 19.037982, 18.302834, 18.219671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.722, "volume": 4485, "typical_volume": 2108.7, "trend": 18.3559, "fair_value": 17.941603, "relative_strength": -6.524237, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.74944, "energy": 78.212416, "activity_lines": [ 19.993534, 19.281818, 18.470057, 18.309411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.378, "volume": 1014, "typical_volume": 2109.6, "trend": 18.354167, "fair_value": 17.941308, "relative_strength": -7.764448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.053424, "energy": 82.456237, "activity_lines": [ 19.852267, 19.4138, 18.596653, 18.375353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.198, "volume": 1340, "typical_volume": 2170.6, "trend": 18.356233, "fair_value": 17.943038, "relative_strength": -8.974684, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.541032, "energy": 54.071212, "activity_lines": [ 19.589533, 19.464546, 18.700143, 18.429794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.455, "volume": 9138, "typical_volume": 2568.45, "trend": 18.370233, "fair_value": 17.956545, "relative_strength": -5.662912, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.119733, "energy": 56.682492, "activity_lines": [ 19.783667, 19.707255, 18.914948, 18.565198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }