{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b678fde5-31f8-45a0-a86c-612e8af78fe6", "symbol": "XUTD", "name": "Xtrackers II US Treasuries UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.864, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.365, "architecture_energy": 21.818, "architecture_maturity": 57.004, "architecture_confidence": 72.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.59, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 55.46, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 39.86, "downward_expansion": 23.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.584001, 167.272727, 166.619795, 166.291891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 165.779999, "trend_reference": 165.771121, "distance_from_trend": 5.4e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.450649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.071054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015571, "excess_performance": -0.155321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 5.4e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00907, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70, "relative_activity": 0.133907, "balance": 0.822207, "dry_up": 1.08704, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007822, "annualized_volatility": 0.051519, "from_high_reference": -0.025511, "from_low_reference": 0.034184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 165.771121, "fair_value_reference": 165.450649, "structural_low": 161.92158, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004813, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.003478, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.024241, "worst_return": -0.034619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.052162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033615, "worst_return": -0.046158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044903, "worst_return": -0.040791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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168.327334, 167.659064, 166.551037, 166.146696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 167.759995, "volume": 404, "typical_volume": 515.35, "trend": 165.695386, "fair_value": 165.364264, "relative_strength": -10.644931, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.179649, "energy": 52.627507, "activity_lines": [ 168.094666, 167.826908, 166.697874, 166.289832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.710007, "volume": 846, "typical_volume": 538.25, "trend": 165.762712, "fair_value": 165.407232, "relative_strength": -11.938351, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.648061, "energy": 20.409038, "activity_lines": [ 167.180668, 167.554364, 166.649641, 166.290775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 165.779999, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 522.75, "trend": 165.771121, "fair_value": 165.450649, "relative_strength": -14.071054, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.36542, "energy": 21.817792, "activity_lines": [ 166.584001, 167.272727, 166.619795, 166.291891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }