{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b67a3667-8317-4ad8-96ff-08a498689f1c", "symbol": "MLVIN", "name": "Fonci\u00e8re Vindi Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.78, "architecture_energy": 22.557, "architecture_maturity": 29.143, "architecture_confidence": 56.321, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.24, "rotation_up": 47.94, "upward_expansion": 31.71, "deceleration": 49.13, "rotation_down": 16.97, "downward_expansion": 15.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.56, 4.557091, 4.541429, 4.543914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.56, "trend_reference": 4.548667, "distance_from_trend": 0.002492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.303718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.850352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004367, "excess_performance": -0.057678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002492, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005735, "annualized_volatility": 0.079764, "from_high_reference": -0.008696, "from_low_reference": 0.036364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.548667, "fair_value_reference": 4.303718, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002911, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.187919, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011239, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.026846, "worst_return": -0.004367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.308725, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.237669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308725, "worst_return": 0.308725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.342282, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.162798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342282, "worst_return": 0.342282, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 170.8, "trend": 3.632667, "fair_value": 2.805128, "relative_strength": 7.291154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.598722, "energy": 58.056443, "activity_lines": [ 3.88, 3.752364, 3.733048, 3.695613 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 167.3, "trend": 3.647333, "fair_value": 2.815, "relative_strength": 6.430859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.695391, "energy": 59.447518, "activity_lines": [ 3.88, 3.777091, 3.748952, 3.71157 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.5, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 102.65, "trend": 3.649333, "fair_value": 2.822179, "relative_strength": -4.545047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.202835, "energy": 20.858109, "activity_lines": [ 3.753333, 3.734909, 3.728286, 3.702065 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 3.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52.65, "trend": 3.651333, "fair_value": 2.831026, "relative_strength": -3.654193, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.397363, "energy": 10.317647, "activity_lines": [ 3.652, 3.701818, 3.707714, 3.69243 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 3.5, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 52.9, "trend": 3.653333, "fair_value": 2.839872, "relative_strength": -5.231168, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.040976, "energy": 31.837225, "activity_lines": [ 3.576, 3.677818, 3.687238, 3.682667 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 3.88, "volume": 185, "typical_volume": 62.15, "trend": 3.668, "fair_value": 2.851154, "relative_strength": 7.849448, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.506958, "energy": 18.552192, "activity_lines": [ 3.652, 3.714182, 3.703048, 3.69729 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 3.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 62.05, "trend": 3.682667, "fair_value": 2.861923, "relative_strength": 8.548395, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.62, "energy": 16.032675, "activity_lines": [ 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"relative_strength": -3.51557, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.1984, "energy": 31.264531, "activity_lines": [ 4.56, 4.542909, 4.538857, 4.54271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.56, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.25, "trend": 4.55, "fair_value": 4.299359, "relative_strength": -4.833988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.684323, "energy": 26.558119, "activity_lines": [ 4.56, 4.551273, 4.540095, 4.543269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.56, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.25, "trend": 4.548667, "fair_value": 4.303718, "relative_strength": -6.850352, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.779591, "energy": 22.556541, "activity_lines": [ 4.56, 4.557091, 4.541429, 4.543914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }