{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b67a80e1-5dab-4313-8a3a-060179c5d8d5", "symbol": "300814", "name": "Shenzhen Jove Enterprise Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.085, "architecture_energy": 26.509, "architecture_maturity": 76.254, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.26, "rotation_up": 15.94, "upward_expansion": 47.59, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 45.84, "downward_expansion": 27.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.817373, 145.486689, 143.884614, 132.621269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 141.990005, "trend_reference": 116.79967, "distance_from_trend": 0.215671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.327859, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.766334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 52.52251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.912323, "excess_performance": 0.904924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.215671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.766334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.525225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.912323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.377904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50121088, "relative_activity": 1.425855, "balance": 2.377904, "dry_up": 1.225543, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207268, "annualized_volatility": 0.960833, "from_high_reference": -0.304272, "from_low_reference": 3.144484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.79967, "fair_value_reference": 51.327859, "structural_low": 70.529999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.219012, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.481144, "worst_return": 0.123558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.494405, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.453677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.499931, "worst_return": 0.231631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.331538, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.406699, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.389899, "worst_return": -0.114333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.846103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.83302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.723577, "worst_return": -0.03137, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076848, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143657, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.366373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.684035, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.162279, "energy": 27.352701, "activity_lines": [ 147.979136, 159.274146, 145.541805, 131.731226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.169998, "volume": 45206953, "typical_volume": 34755120.9, "trend": 114.531336, "fair_value": 50.639182, "relative_strength": 15.710148, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.047744, "energy": 23.587126, "activity_lines": [ 128.155915, 148.296871, 142.728852, 130.849742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.990005, "volume": 50121088, "typical_volume": 35151597.95, "trend": 116.79967, "fair_value": 51.327859, "relative_strength": 52.52251, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.085439, "energy": 26.508614, "activity_lines": [ 128.817373, 145.486689, 143.884614, 132.621269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }