{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b681cd4c-2452-4aac-960d-b1839db5c805", "symbol": "RIVN", "name": "Rivian Automotive Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.011, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.771, "architecture_energy": 15.563, "architecture_maturity": 16.06, "architecture_confidence": 73.02, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.26, "rotation_up": 31.21, "upward_expansion": 52.6, "deceleration": 82.14, "rotation_down": 32.0, "downward_expansion": 25.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.052667, 16.470273, 16.185976, 15.983452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 15.814167, "distance_from_trend": 0.011751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.692468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.955098, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081081, "excess_performance": -0.106373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081081, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94980824, "relative_activity": 0.637127, "balance": 0.771273, "dry_up": 0.873646, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150876, "annualized_volatility": 0.559544, "from_high_reference": -0.294844, "from_low_reference": 0.381693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.814167, "fair_value_reference": 14.692468, "structural_low": 12.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.018549, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000194, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.617047, "worst_return": -0.208936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056944, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.457383, "worst_return": -0.442506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.13674, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008172, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.408163, "worst_return": -0.014331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 17.455, "volume": 154634741, "typical_volume": 155017274.5, "trend": 16.229833, "fair_value": 14.863686, "relative_strength": 0.976685, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.934594, "energy": 30.96408, "activity_lines": [ 17.391, 16.904909, 16.236905, 16.057806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.84, "volume": 120218681, "typical_volume": 154930938.05, "trend": 16.061167, "fair_value": 14.792532, "relative_strength": -6.758506, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.45922, "energy": 21.455268, "activity_lines": [ 16.956667, 16.818818, 16.236595, 16.032656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.22, "volume": 151127154, "typical_volume": 154161131.7, "trend": 15.9215, "fair_value": 14.728173, "relative_strength": -10.876253, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.61942, "energy": 10.687523, "activity_lines": [ 16.361, 16.582727, 16.175, 15.978387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 94980824, "typical_volume": 149076766.75, "trend": 15.814167, "fair_value": 14.692468, "relative_strength": -10.955098, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.771331, "energy": 15.562575, "activity_lines": [ 16.052667, 16.470273, 16.185976, 15.983452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }