{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b68521d8-b30e-448b-aa03-67e960ececc9", "symbol": "FAAR", "name": "FIRST TRUST ALTERNATIVE ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.346, "architecture_energy": 55.595, "architecture_maturity": 9.112, "architecture_confidence": 75.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.48, "rotation_up": 19.53, "upward_expansion": 18.04, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 71.99, "downward_expansion": 62.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.04724, 31.333946, 32.155381, 32.323079 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.74, "trend_reference": 31.984224, "distance_from_trend": -0.038901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.424135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.19743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056734, "excess_performance": -0.13072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.094849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208687, "relative_activity": 0.865184, "balance": 0.094849, "dry_up": 0.744434, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027444, "annualized_volatility": 0.157886, "from_high_reference": -0.137564, "from_low_reference": 0.187364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.984224, "fair_value_reference": 26.424135, "structural_low": 28.935144, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.28, "volume": 133371, "typical_volume": 237956.95, "trend": 31.605726, "fair_value": 26.294243, "relative_strength": -5.143024, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.699896, "energy": 58.589035, "activity_lines": [ 31.391454, 32.013143, 32.716539, 32.459233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.1934, "volume": 102133, "typical_volume": 238670.1, "trend": 31.743463, "fair_value": 26.337034, "relative_strength": -3.864122, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.410741, "energy": 59.707791, "activity_lines": [ 31.26648, 31.764574, 32.534432, 32.432631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.185, "volume": 274054, "typical_volume": 240255.45, "trend": 31.879591, "fair_value": 26.381726, "relative_strength": -4.366752, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.863641, "energy": 58.952516, "activity_lines": [ 31.21536, 31.565973, 32.36081, 32.396601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.74, "volume": 208687, "typical_volume": 241205.2, "trend": 31.984224, "fair_value": 26.424135, "relative_strength": -10.19743, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.346446, "energy": 55.594938, "activity_lines": [ 31.04724, 31.333946, 32.155381, 32.323079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }