{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b68ebf08-281b-4adb-94db-36e78474fd32", "symbol": "ASIX", "name": "AdvanSix Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.984, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -53.238, "architecture_energy": 50.099, "architecture_maturity": 48.961, "architecture_confidence": 63.894, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.5, "rotation_up": 20.38, "upward_expansion": 16.75, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 62.24, "downward_expansion": 56.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.176667, 19.821091, 20.761078, 20.898212 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.48, "trend_reference": 20.461819, "distance_from_trend": -0.194598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.358164, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.428286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094867, "excess_performance": -0.220492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.089432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1451174, "relative_activity": 0.987654, "balance": 2.089432, "dry_up": 0.830341, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126892, "annualized_volatility": 0.625974, "from_high_reference": -0.378833, "from_low_reference": 0.187585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.461819, "fair_value_reference": 23.358164, "structural_low": 14.77, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046828, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.045831, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.135756, "worst_return": -0.107817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001395, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244629, "worst_return": -0.050098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.214726, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069193, "worst_return": -0.246208, "sufficient": false }, 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"close": 21.05, "volume": 1205564, "typical_volume": 1709703.65, "trend": 20.415318, "fair_value": 23.580997, "relative_strength": 0.347773, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.351917, "energy": 9.777739, "activity_lines": [ 20.673333, 20.829455, 21.434585, 21.18172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.06, "volume": 899457, "typical_volume": 1610578.75, "trend": 20.519067, "fair_value": 23.475183, "relative_strength": -5.198816, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.258026, "energy": 12.548562, "activity_lines": [ 20.514667, 20.630727, 21.267388, 21.158796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.48, "volume": 1451174, "typical_volume": 1469314.2, "trend": 20.461819, "fair_value": 23.358164, "relative_strength": -24.428286, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.237803, "energy": 50.098767, "activity_lines": [ 19.176667, 19.821091, 20.761078, 20.898212 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }